9 September 2026, 16:45 UTC

VfB Stuttgart vs Viking UEFA Champions League prediction & result

MHPArena, Stuttgart
Full time3 – 1

Final score: VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Viking.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% VfB Stuttgart, 24% draw, 18% Viking — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts VfB Stuttgart at 58% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfB Stuttgart99%Draw1%Viking0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Demirovicassist: A. Stiller
20'
22'
⚽Z. Tripicassist: H. Bjordal
⚽E. Demirovicassist: D. Undav
26'
⚽E. Demirovicassist: D. Undav
32'
42'
Kristoffer Askildsen
54'
Peter Christiansen
58'
Joe Bell
🔁J. Lewelingout: J. Vagnoman
62'
🔁E. Demirovicout: D. Pejcinovic
62'
62'
🔁J. Dalandout: H. Falchener
62'
🔁J. Bellout: E. Botheim
🔁F. Jeltschout: R. Hendriks
71'
🔁B. El Khannoussout: L. Sauer
71'
71'
🔁K. Haugenout: V. Auklend
71'
🔁T. Moiout: S. Kvia-Egeskog
84'
🔁H. Heggheimout: H. J. Haugen
🔁M. Mittelstadtout: A. Al Dakhil
86'

Match stats — VfB Stuttgart vs Viking

62%Possession38%
17Shots9
3On target3
4Corners5

Line-ups

VfB Stuttgart 3-2-4-1
  • 1F. BredlowG
  • 29F. JeltschD
  • 24J. ChabotD
  • 7M. MittelstadtD
  • 21G. PromelM
  • 6A. StillerM
  • 18J. LewelingF
  • 26D. UndavM
  • 11B. El KhannoussM
  • 10C. FuhrichF
  • 9E. DemirovicF
Substitutes
  • 33M. FunkG
  • 3R. HendriksD
  • 2A. Al DakhilD
  • 4J. VagnomanD
  • 16A. KarazorM
  • 47Y. SpaltD
  • 44L. SauerF
  • 43J. MalangaM
  • 17D. PejcinovicF
Coach: Sebastian Hoeness
Viking 4-3-3
  • 1A. OstboG
  • 5H. HeggheimD
  • 6G. StensnessD
  • 27J. DalandD
  • 28K. HaugenD
  • 29T. MoiM
  • 8J. BellM
  • 7K. AskildsenM
  • 16H. BjordalF
  • 20P. ChristiansenF
  • 10Z. TripicF
Substitutes
  • 30L. BelkoG
  • 3V. VevatneD
  • 2H. J. HaugenD
  • 24V. AuklendD
  • 25H. FalchenerD
  • 33J. HansenM
  • 15O. VistedM
  • 22E. BotheimF
  • 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
Coach: Bjarte Aarsheim

Form going into VfB Stuttgart vs Viking

VfB Stuttgart

All competitions we cover

  • W4-11. FC Köln4 September 2026
  • L1-5away to Bayern München28 August 2026

Viking

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Sandefjord4 September 2026
  • W2-1Aalesund30 August 2026
  • W3-1Dinamo Zagreb26 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Dinamo Zagreb18 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Rosenborg14 August 2026

What these results say

  • Viking scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Viking conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Viking.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6VfB Stuttgart321072+57
33Viking301259-41

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: VfB Stuttgart and Viking

VfB Stuttgart

GoalsAssists

  • E. Demirović40

Viking

GoalsAssists

  • P. Christiansen30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VfB Stuttgart beat Viking 3–1. The model had made a win for VfB Stuttgart its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: E. Demirovic 20' for VfB Stuttgart, Z. Tripic 22' for Viking, E. Demirovic 26' for VfB Stuttgart, E. Demirovic 32' for VfB Stuttgart.

How the call on VfB Stuttgart v Viking has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 53% / 26% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 58% / 24% / 18%: the biggest move is VfB Stuttgart's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. VfB Stuttgart win58%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Viking win18%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.