Samgurali vs Dila Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Samgurali 1-3 Dila.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Samgurali, 28% draw, 39% Dila — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dila at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Samgurali vs Dila
Line-ups
- 21A. SiukaevG
- 13L. GegetchkoriD
- 4O. PatarkatsishviliD
- 39RyanD
- 22G. GogiaD
- 10L. GilmoreM
- 9T. GaprindashviliF
- 27L. ShergelashviliD
- 15Gean RodriguesF
- 17N. TsetskhladzeF
- 19I. SiradzeF
- 8I. BidzinashviliM
- 11D. KrasovskiF
- 12A. KasradzeG
- 14T. GoletianiM
- 20Vinicius ViannaM
- 25M. ShatirishviliD
- 26Z. IashviliM
- 28Claudio CebolinhaF
- 33Isac MartinsM
- 1D. KereselidzeG
- 2T. KikabidzeD
- 13Joao AraujoD
- 5M. N. Puketi
- 16M. SanyangF
- 17B. AnoffM
- 8L. MenteshashviliM
- 24M. Diouf
- 11K. GrabovskisF
- 22S. ShekiladzeF
- 9M. KanteF
- 10O. ParulavaM
- 12L. SanikidzeG
- 14G. JalaghoniaD
- 15G. KobakhidzeM
- 19B. GogoberishviliM
- 21Z. MuselianiF
- 25L. YarbroughD
- 33R. EtouD
Form going into Samgurali vs Dila
Samgurali
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 19995 September 2026
- D1-1Rustavi30 August 2026
Dila
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Gagra5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Tbilisi31 August 2026
- L0-3away to Apollon Limassol28 July 2026
- L0-4Apollon Limassol23 July 2026
What these results say
- Dila failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dila conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Dila had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Samgurali | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 38 |
| 5 | Dila | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 40 | 37 | +3 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Dila won 3–1 at Samgurali. The model had made a win for Dila its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: M. Sanyang 21' for Dila, S. Shekiladze 23' for Dila, M. Kante 49' for Dila, Claudio Cebolinha 85' for Samgurali.
How the call on Samgurali v Dila has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 33% / 26% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is Dila's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Samgurali win33%=
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Dila win39%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.