9 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Napoli vs Arsenal UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Napoli 0-1 Arsenal.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Napoli, 31% draw, 35% Arsenal — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Arsenal at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Napoli0%Draw3%Arsenal97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Billy Gilmour
42'
🔁A. Meretout: V. Milinkovic-Savic
46'
🔁Alisson Santosout: A. Vergara
58'
🔁M. Politanoout: C. Favasuli
58'
65'
🔁M. Merinoout: Bruno Guimaraes
66'
🔁E. Ezeout: C. Tzolis
73'
🔁V. Gyokeresout: K. Havertz
73'
🔁B. Sakaout: N. Madueke
75'
⚽M. Odegaardassist: C. Tzolis
🔁R. Hojlundout: David Neres
76'
🔁S. Lobotkaout: L. Lucca
77'
82'
🔁B. Whiteout: M. Zubimendi
Lorenzo Lucca
85'
90+1'
Martin Ødegaard

Match stats — Napoli vs Arsenal

42%Possession58%
5Shots26
3On target8
0Corners6

Line-ups

Napoli 4-3-3
  • 1A. MeretG
  • 22G. Di LorenzoD
  • 13A. RrahmaniD
  • 16R. MarinD
  • 17M. OliveraD
  • 11K. De BruyneM
  • 6B. GilmourM
  • 68S. LobotkaM
  • 21M. PolitanoF
  • 19R. HojlundF
  • 27Alisson SantosF
Substitutes
  • 32V. Milinkovic-SavicG
  • 14N. ContiniG
  • 31S. BeukemaD
  • 5B. BadiashileD
  • 37L. SpinazzolaD
  • 26A. VergaraM
  • 2C. FavasuliD
  • 7David NeresF
  • 20L. LuccaF
Coach: Massimiliano Allegri
Arsenal 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. RayaG
  • 4B. WhiteD
  • 15E. KonsaD
  • 6GabrielD
  • 5P. HincapieD
  • 41D. RiceM
  • 23M. MerinoM
  • 7B. SakaM
  • 8M. OdegaardM
  • 10E. EzeM
  • 14V. GyokeresF
Substitutes
  • 13K. ArrizabalagaG
  • 30I. MeslierG
  • 49M. Lewis-SkellyD
  • 89M. SalmonD
  • 33R. CalafioriD
  • 36M. ZubimendiM
  • 39Bruno GuimaraesM
  • 56M. DowmanM
  • 29K. HavertzF
Coach: Mikel Arteta

Form going into Napoli vs Arsenal

Napoli

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
  • L1-2Como30 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026

Arsenal

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
  • W3-0Coventry21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Napoli310257-23
7Arsenal321062+47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Arsenal won 1–0 at Napoli. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Arsenal at 35%. The goal: M. Odegaard 75' for Arsenal.

How the call on Napoli v Arsenal has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 32% / 31% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 34% / 31% / 35%: the biggest move is Napoli's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Napoli win34%▲ +2
  2. Draw31%=
  3. Arsenal win35%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.