Napoli vs Arsenal UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Napoli 0-1 Arsenal.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Napoli, 31% draw, 35% Arsenal — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 35% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Napoli vs Arsenal
Napoli
- L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
- L1-2Como30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Genoa22 August 2026
Arsenal
- W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
- W3-0Coventry21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table