10 September 2026, 00:00 UTC

New York City FC vs New England Revolution Major League Soccer prediction & result

Yankee Stadium, New York
Full time1 – 2

Final score: New York City FC 1-2 New England Revolution.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% New York City FC, 30% draw, 30% New England Revolution — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts New York City FC at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

New York City FC4%Draw93%New England Revolution3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽Carles Gil (pen)
18'
Alhassan Yusuf
19'
🔁Alhassan Yusufout: Jackson Yueill
31'
Matt Polster
🔁Aiden O'Neillout: Hannes Wolf
63'
🔁Agustin Ojedaout: Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos
63'
⚽Luighi Hanri Sousa Santosassist: Nicolás Fernández Mercau
71'
72'
🔁Matt Polsterout: Ilay Feingold
72'
🔁Dor Turgemanout: Dániel Gazdag
80'
🔁Jack Harrisonout: Wilson Harris
80'
🔁Peyton Millerout: Luca Daniel·Langoni
85'
•Dániel Gazdag
🔁Bénie Adama Traoréout: Malachi Jones
89'
90+3'
⚽Dániel Gazdagassist: Ilay Feingold
90+5'
🔁William Sandsout: Tanner·Beason

Match stats — New York City FC vs New England Revolution

66%Possession34%
18Shots11
6On target6
12Corners4

Line-ups

New York City FC 4-3-3
  • 49M. FreeseG
  • 35M. IlenicD
  • 13Thiago MartinsD
  • 34Raul GustavoD
  • 22K. O'TooleD
  • 7N. MercauM
  • 21A. O'NeillM
  • 6J. SandsM
  • 26A. OjedaF
  • 9B. TraoreF
  • 8A. PereaF
Substitutes
  • 30T. RomeroG
  • 23M. MurrayD
  • 24T. GrayD
  • 2N. CavalloD
  • 32J. ShoreM
  • 17H. WolfF
  • 88M. JonesF
  • 16A. MartinezF
  • 20LuighiF
Coach: Pascal Jansen
New England Revolution 4-3-3
  • 30M. TurnerG
  • 8M. PolsterD
  • 22E. KohlerD
  • 2M. FofanaD
  • 23W. SandsD
  • 10C. GilM
  • 21B. RainesM
  • 80A. YusufM
  • 11J. HarrisonF
  • 99D. TurgemanF
  • 25P. MillerF
Substitutes
  • 33D. ParisianG
  • 4T. BeasonD
  • 12I. FeingoldD
  • 16D. GazdagM
  • 14J. YueillM
  • 77D. FagundezM
  • 7G. YowF
  • 41L. LangoniF
  • 27W. HarrisF
Coach: Marko Mitrovic

Form going into New York City FC vs New England Revolution

New York City FC

  • D0-0Nashville SC4 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Toronto FC29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to New England Revolution23 August 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Cincinnati19 August 2026
  • L2-3Philadelphia Union16 August 2026

New England Revolution

  • L1-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy6 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Columbus Crew30 August 2026
  • D1-1New York City FC23 August 2026
  • W3-0away to DC United19 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Toronto FC15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: New York City FC vs New England Revolution

  • 10 September 2026New York City FC 1–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 23 August 2026New England Revolution 1–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 19 April 2025New England Revolution 2–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 15 March 2025New York City FC 2–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 9 August 2024New England Revolution 1–1 New York City FCLeagues Cup
  • 25 May 2024New England Revolution 0–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: New York City FC and New England Revolution

New York City FC

  • N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists

New England Revolution

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.