10 September 2026, 00:00 UTC

New York City FC vs New England Revolution Major League Soccer prediction & result

Yankee Stadium, New York
Full time1 – 2

Final score: New York City FC 1-2 New England Revolution.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% New York City FC, 30% draw, 30% New England Revolution — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts New York City FC at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

New York City FC4%Draw93%New England Revolution3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽Carles Gil (pen)
18'
Alhassan Yusuf
19'
🔁Alhassan Yusufout: Jackson Yueill
31'
Matt Polster
🔁Aiden O'Neillout: Hannes Wolf
63'
🔁Agustin Ojedaout: Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos
63'
⚽Luighi Hanri Sousa Santosassist: Nicolás Fernández Mercau
71'
72'
🔁Matt Polsterout: Ilay Feingold
72'
🔁Dor Turgemanout: Dániel Gazdag
80'
🔁Jack Harrisonout: Wilson Harris
80'
🔁Peyton Millerout: Luca Daniel·Langoni
85'
•Dániel Gazdag
🔁Bénie Adama Traoréout: Malachi Jones
89'
90+3'
⚽Dániel Gazdagassist: Ilay Feingold
90+5'
🔁William Sandsout: Tanner·Beason

Match stats — New York City FC vs New England Revolution

66%Possession34%
18Shots11
6On target6
12Corners4

Line-ups

New York City FC 4-3-3
  • 49M. FreeseG
  • 35M. IlenicD
  • 13Thiago MartinsD
  • 34Raul GustavoD
  • 22K. O'TooleD
  • 7N. MercauM
  • 21A. O'NeillM
  • 6J. SandsM
  • 26A. OjedaF
  • 9B. TraoreF
  • 8A. PereaF
Substitutes
  • 30T. RomeroG
  • 23M. MurrayD
  • 24T. GrayD
  • 2N. CavalloD
  • 32J. ShoreM
  • 17H. WolfF
  • 88M. JonesF
  • 16A. MartinezF
  • 20LuighiF
Coach: Pascal Jansen
New England Revolution 4-3-3
  • 30M. TurnerG
  • 8M. PolsterD
  • 22E. KohlerD
  • 2M. FofanaD
  • 23W. SandsD
  • 10C. GilM
  • 21B. RainesM
  • 80A. YusufM
  • 11J. HarrisonF
  • 99D. TurgemanF
  • 25P. MillerF
Substitutes
  • 33D. ParisianG
  • 4T. BeasonD
  • 12I. FeingoldD
  • 16D. GazdagM
  • 14J. YueillM
  • 77D. FagundezM
  • 7G. YowF
  • 41L. LangoniF
  • 27W. HarrisF
Coach: Marko Mitrovic

Form going into New York City FC vs New England Revolution

New York City FC

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Nashville SC4 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Toronto FC29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to New England Revolution23 August 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Cincinnati19 August 2026
  • L2-3Philadelphia Union16 August 2026

New England Revolution

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy6 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Columbus Crew30 August 2026
  • D1-1New York City FC23 August 2026
  • W3-0away to DC United19 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Toronto FC15 August 2026

What these results say

  • New York City FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • New York City FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • New York City FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • New England Revolution scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • New England Revolution conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for New England Revolution had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12New York City FC32911124744+338
2New England Revolution32184105444+1058

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: New York City FC vs New England Revolution

  • 23 August 2026New England Revolution 1–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 19 April 2025New England Revolution 2–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 15 March 2025New York City FC 2–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
  • 9 August 2024New England Revolution 1–1 New York City FCLeagues Cup
  • 25 May 2024New England Revolution 0–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: New York City FC and New England Revolution

New York City FC

GoalsAssists

  • N. Fernández Mercau165

New England Revolution

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 54 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

New England Revolution won 2–1 at New York City FC. The model had leaned towards a win for New York City FC at 40% and given a win for New England Revolution 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Carles Gil (penalty) 12' for New England Revolution, Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos 71' for New York City FC, Dániel Gazdag 90+3' for New England Revolution.

How the call on New York City FC v New England Revolution has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 30% / 30%: the biggest move is New England Revolution's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. New York City FC win40%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%▲ +2
  3. New England Revolution win30%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.