Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Liverpool 2-1 Atletico Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Liverpool, 25% draw, 21% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Liverpool at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1AlissonG
- 33R. AraujoD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 6M. KerkezD
- 8D. SzoboszlaiM
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 29B. BarcolaM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 73R. NgumohaM
- 9A. IsakF
- 28F. WoodmanG
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 44L. ChambersD
- 30J. FrimpongD
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 53J. McConnellM
- 42T. NyoniM
- 67L. KoumasF
- 13J. OblakG
- 18M. PubillD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 14M. LlorenteM
- 8P. BarriosM
- 6KokeM
- 10A. BaenaM
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 7Lee Kang-InF
- 19J. AlvarezF
- 1J. MussoG
- 22A. GrimaldoD
- 24R. Le NormandD
- 30D. MartinezD
- 27J. DominguezD
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 3O. VargasM
- 4R. MendozaM
- 5J. CardosoM
Form going into Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
Liverpool
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Ipswich4 September 2026
- D2-2Nottingham Forest29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle23 August 2026
Atletico Madrid
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
- W2-0Malaga19 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Madrid scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Madrid conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico Madrid had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Atletico Madrid
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- B. Barcola30
- A. Mac Allister30
Atletico Madrid
No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Liverpool beat Atletico Madrid 2–1. The model had made a win for Liverpool its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: M. Llorente 17' for Atletico Madrid, D. Szoboszlai 40' for Liverpool, A. Mac Allister 50' for Liverpool. On expected goals it finished 1.62–0.91.
How the call on Liverpool v Atletico Madrid has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Liverpool's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Liverpool win54%▲ +9
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Atletico Madrid win21%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.