Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Liverpool 2-1 Atletico Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Liverpool, 25% draw, 21% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Liverpool at 54% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
Liverpool
- W2-0away to Ipswich4 September 2026
- D2-2Nottingham Forest29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle23 August 2026
Atletico Madrid
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
- W2-0Malaga19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table