Spaeri vs Rustavi Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Spaeri 1-1 Rustavi.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Spaeri, 30% draw, 38% Rustavi — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rustavi at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Spaeri vs Rustavi
Line-ups
- 1B. PutkaradzeG
- 22N. ChagunavaD
- 3L. KachibaiaD
- 31G. BunturiD
- 14G. SamkharadzeD
- 5T. TsalughelashviliM
- 6T. AskuravaM
- 13S. MathenjwaD
- 19G. TsirdavaF
- 7S. GegiadzeD
- 17L. KokhreidzeF
- 23N. ChomakhidzeG
- 4G. GrigalashviliM
- 9G. TsetskhladzeF
- 16S. DzneladzeD
- 21O. GordezianiM
- 24Z. GolubianiM
- 25R. InjgiaF
- 30Z. BasilashviliF
- 38F. Osemene
- 21P. BeruashviliG
- 2S. AndghuladzeD
- 4David OliveiraD
- 3V. PatsatsiaD
- 19N. ChikovaniD
- 22Y. NakanoM
- 13A. GujabidzeM
- 23M. GambosM
- 20L. ParkadzeM
- 10P. OseiF
- 9JeanF
- 35J. RolandG
- 5K. CeijasF
- 7Jackson Kenio
- 8K. KakashviliM
- 12T. TarkashviliD
- 16G. Kakabadze
- 18N. JaparidzeF
- 24I. IakobidzeD
- 33G. Ksovreli
Form going into Spaeri vs Rustavi
Spaeri
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Meshakhte5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Dinamo Batumi30 August 2026
Rustavi
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Dinamo Batumi4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Samgurali30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spaeri | 30 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 27 |
| 4 | Rustavi | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 26 | +10 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Spaeri and Rustavi drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Rustavi at 38% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: G. Tsirdava 26' for Spaeri, Jean 33' for Rustavi.
How the call on Spaeri v Rustavi has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 32% / 32% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 30% / 38%: the biggest move is Rustavi's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Spaeri win32%=
- Draw30%▼ −2
- Rustavi win38%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.