9 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Sporting CP vs Galatasaray UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Lisbon
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Sporting CP 3-1 Galatasaray.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Sporting CP, 28% draw, 30% Galatasaray — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sporting CP at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽G. Inacio (OG)assist: L. Torreira
Sergi Altimira
22'
⚽G. Catamo
27'
Luis Javier Suárez
43'
52'
Eren Elmalı
⚽L. Suarez (pen)
57'
58'
🔁L. Saneout: R. Leao
⚽R. Zalazar
63'
65'
🔁A. Batrakovout: D. Gul
🔁R. Zalazarout: F. Goncalves
66'
🔁I. Doumbiaout: S. Andersen
74'
🔁L. Suarezout: F. Ioannidis
74'
80'
Deniz Gül
🔁E. Quaresmaout: Z. Debast
85'
🔁G. Vagiannidisout: I. Fresneda
85'
85'
🔁Y. Akgunout: I. Gundogan
85'
🔁L. Torreiraout: L. Ugochukwu
85'
🔁Gabriel Saraout: R. Nhaga
90+5'
Ismail Jakobs

Match stats — Sporting CP vs Galatasaray

38%Possession62%
8Shots10
5On target3
1Corners4
1.75xG1.23

Goals against chances

Sporting CP3 from 1.75 xGmore than the chances were worth
Galatasaray1 from 1.23 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. SilvaG
  • 13G. VagiannidisD
  • 72E. QuaresmaD
  • 25G. InacioD
  • 20M. AraujoD
  • 5S. AltimiraM
  • 77I. DoumbiaM
  • 10G. CatamoM
  • 17R. ZalazarM
  • 31Luis GuilhermeM
  • 97L. SuarezF
Substitutes
  • 30Kaique PereiraG
  • 50R. DiasD
  • 6Z. DebastD
  • 22I. FresnedaD
  • 4S. AndersenM
  • 21Pedro LimaM
  • 73E. FelicissimoM
  • 58F. GoncalvesF
  • 9R. NelF
Coach: Rui Borges
Galatasaray 4-2-3-1
  • 1U. CakirG
  • 7R. SallaiD
  • 6D. SanchezD
  • 4I. JakobsD
  • 17E. ElmaliD
  • 34L. TorreiraM
  • 8Gabriel SaraM
  • 10L. SaneM
  • 83A. BatrakovM
  • 11Y. AkgunM
  • 53B. YilmazF
Substitutes
  • 24J. YilmazG
  • 70E. BuyukG
  • 42A. BardakciD
  • 3E. BitshiabuD
  • 20I. GundoganM
  • 18L. UgochukwuM
  • 74R. NhagaM
  • 21D. GulF
  • 27R. LeaoF
Coach: Okan Buruk

Form going into Sporting CP vs Galatasaray

Sporting CP

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Nacional5 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Rio Ave28 August 2026
  • W3-1Alverca22 August 2026
  • W3-2Guimaraes14 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Estrela8 August 2026

Galatasaray

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to Başakşehir4 September 2026
  • W3-2Göztepe29 August 2026
  • W4-0away to Erzurumspor FK21 August 2026
  • D2-2Çorum FK14 August 2026

What these results say

  • Sporting CP went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Sporting CP scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sporting CP won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Galatasaray went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Galatasaray scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Galatasaray had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Sporting CP320174+36
23Galatasaray310269-33

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Galatasaray

Sporting CP

GoalsAssists

  • L. Suárez40

Galatasaray

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting CP beat Galatasaray 3–1. The model had made a win for Sporting CP its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: G. Inacio (own goal) 5' for Galatasaray, G. Catamo 27' for Sporting CP, L. Suarez (penalty) 57' for Sporting CP, R. Zalazar 63' for Sporting CP. On expected goals it finished 1.75–1.23.

How the call on Sporting CP v Galatasaray has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Galatasaray's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Sporting CP win42%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Galatasaray win30%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.