Venezia vs Lazio Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Venezia 0-2 Lazio.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Venezia, 28% draw, 40% Lazio — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lazio at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Venezia vs Lazio
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. StankovicG
- 3J. SchingtienneD
- 15Juan JesusD
- 2M. MorenoD
- 18A. HainautM
- 71K. PerezM
- 19S. SohmM
- 21T. J. HelgasonM
- 14T. CorreiaM
- 10J. YeboahF
- 45A. AdamsF
- 96L. MontipoG
- 16R. MohammedD
- 25R. HalhalD
- 20R. SagradoD
- 95A. GomesD
- 55S. PanadaM
- 8L. FanneM
- 36L. BerardiM
- 29L. LauberbachF
- 35C. MandasG
- 15R. FlorianiD
- 37J. SutaloD
- 25O. ProvstgaardD
- 17N. TavaresD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 21R. BelahyaneM
- 24K. TaylorM
- 22M. CancellieriF
- 14T. NoslinF
- 10M. ZaccagniF
- 47D. RenzettiG
- 40E. MottaG
- 2D. LeiteD
- 23A. PedrazaD
- 5D. DoekhiD
- 29M. LazzariM
- 32D. CataldiM
- 71V. FarcomeniM
- 80A. GudmundssonF
Form going into Venezia vs Lazio
Venezia
All competitions we cover
- L2-4Fiorentina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Frosinone6 September 2026
- L0-2away to AC Milan28 August 2026
- L0-2Lecce23 August 2026
Lazio
All competitions we cover
- D2-2AC Milan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Bologna24 August 2026
What these results say
- Venezia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Venezia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lazio went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lazio won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Venezia | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 3 |
| 2 | Lazio | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Venezia vs Lazio
- 22 February 2025Venezia 0–0 LazioSerie A
- 18 August 2024Lazio 3–1 VeneziaSerie A
- 14 March 2022Lazio 1–0 VeneziaSerie A
- 22 December 2021Venezia 1–3 LazioSerie A
Leading scorers: Venezia and Lazio
Venezia
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- T. Noslin42
- G. Isaksen31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lazio won 2–0 at Venezia. The model had made a win for Lazio its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: M. Zaccagni (penalty) 51' for Lazio, T. Noslin 60' for Lazio. On expected goals it finished 1.88–1.60.
How the call on Venezia v Lazio has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 32% / 28% / 40%: the biggest move is Lazio's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Venezia win32%▼ −4
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Lazio win40%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.