19 September 2026, 03:00 UTC

FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez, Ciudad Juarez
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Juarez 2-0 Tigres UANL.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% FC Juarez, 29% draw, 43% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Tigres UANL at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Juarez99%Draw1%Tigres UANL0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Denzell Garcia
45'
🔁Rodrigo Douradoout: Guilherme Castilho
45'
🔁Javier Aquinoout: Manuel Mayorga
60'
62'
🔁Diego Sánchezout: Guillermo Martinez
63'
🔁Ricardo Monrealout: Jonathan Herrera
⚽Oscar Estupiñan (pen)
66'
🔁Denzell Garciaout: Leonardo Silva
76'
⚽Oscar Estupiñanassist: José Luis Rodríguez
79'
83'
🔁Joaquim Pereiraout: Emiliano Gómez
83'
🔁Mauro Laínezout: Rafael Guerrero
🔁Monchuout: Ricardo Oliveira
89'
🔁Oscar Estupiñanout: Madson de Souza Silva
89'
90+4'
Guillermo Martinez

Match stats — FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL

42%Possession58%
14Shots13
5On target5
2Corners9

Line-ups

FC Juarez 5-3-2
  • 1S. JuradoG
  • 33F. NevárezD
  • 3J. MurilloD
  • 2G. SepúlvedaD
  • 26D. PiñaD
  • 20J. AquinoD
  • 6MonchuM
  • 13Rodrigo DouradoM
  • 5D. GarcíaM
  • 19Ó. EstupiñánF
  • 11J. RodríguezF
Substitutes
  • 183L. SilvaM
  • 9MadsonF
  • 24B. DíazG
  • 23H. OrtegaD
  • 8Guilherme CastilhoM
  • 7R. FulgencioM
  • 14E. LópezD
  • 17L. Martínez DupuyF
  • 4A. MayorgaD
Coach: T. Campos
Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. GuzmánG
  • 14J. GarzaD
  • 28JoaquimD
  • 15A. FrancoD
  • 19M. LaínezD
  • 8F. GorriaránM
  • 5C. AraújoM
  • 21R. MonrealM
  • 11J. BrunettaM
  • 30D. SánchezM
  • 17R. AguirreF
Substitutes
  • 198I. GalvanM
  • 33R. GuerreroD
  • 9E. GómezF
  • 77O. HerreraF
  • 32V. LoroñaD
  • 22G. MartínezF
  • 26F. OrdóñezD
  • 25F. RodríguezG
  • 6J. VigónM
Coach: M. Vucetich

Form going into FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL

FC Juarez

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Santos Laguna14 September 2026
  • L0-2CF Pachuca5 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Toluca31 August 2026
  • L1-2Club America22 August 2026
  • L1-6away to Monterrey16 August 2026

Tigres UANL

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Monterrey13 September 2026
  • D1-1Necaxa6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Santos Laguna30 August 2026
  • W2-0Atlante FC22 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Atlas16 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Juarez did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • FC Juarez conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC Juarez had three goals or more.
  • Tigres UANL failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Tigres UANL had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18FC Juarez141211933-245
15Tigres UANL143651519-415

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL

  • 23 March 2026FC Juarez 2–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 20 July 2025Tigres UANL 1–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 26 February 2025Tigres UANL 0–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 23 September 2024FC Juarez 0–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 29 February 2024Tigres UANL 1–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 9 July 2023FC Juarez 1–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX

The full FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL record →

Leading scorers: FC Juarez and Tigres UANL

FC Juarez

GoalsAssists

  • Ó. Estupiñán60

Tigres UANL

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brunetta84

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Juarez beat Tigres UANL 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Tigres UANL at 43% and given a win for FC Juarez 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Oscar Estupiñan (penalty) 66' for FC Juarez, Oscar Estupiñan 79' for FC Juarez.

How the call on FC Juarez v Tigres UANL has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 27% / 28% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 28% / 29% / 43%: the biggest move is Tigres UANL's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. FC Juarez win28%▲ +1
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Tigres UANL win43%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.