Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vasco da Gama 5-0 Coritiba.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Vasco da Gama, 27% draw, 25% Coritiba — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasco da Gama at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba
Line-ups
- 1Léo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 22A. LescanoM
- 5S. SosaM
- 188Thiago MendesM
- 11A. GómezF
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 9F. ColidioF
- 28AdsonF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 7DavidF
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 8JairM
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 50TissiD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 4Rodrigo MoledoD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 21Thiago SantosM
- 19S. GómezM
- 28FabinhoM
- 10JosuéM
- 7J. LavegaM
- 32Pedro RochaF
- 14F. BustosD
- 36Vini PaulistaF
- 5N. FonsecaM
- 37L. CrepaldiF
- 3MaiconD
- 18Paulo RobertoM
- 22Pedro RangelG
- 78Renato MarquesF
- 66Rodrigo GeladoD
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba
Vasco da Gama
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Gremio12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Fluminense6 September 2026
- W3-1Cruzeiro30 August 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
- L0-3Santos16 August 2026
Coritiba
All competitions we cover
- D3-3Atletico Paranaense12 September 2026
- L1-2Mirassol6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Remo31 August 2026
- W2-1Corinthians23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sao Paulo16 August 2026
What these results say
- Vasco da Gama conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vasco da Gama had three goals or more.
- Coritiba scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Coritiba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Coritiba.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 38 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba
- 1 April 2026Coritiba 1–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 21 September 2023Vasco da Gama 5–1 CoritibaSerie A
- 11 May 2023Coritiba 1–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 16 October 2021Vasco da Gama 2–1 CoritibaSerie B
- 14 July 2021Coritiba 1–1 Vasco da GamaSerie B
Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Coritiba
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha81
- Breno Lopes81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vasco da Gama beat Coritiba 5–0. The model had made a win for Vasco da Gama its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Facundo Colidio 24' for Vasco da Gama, Bruno Duarte Da Silva 44' for Vasco da Gama, Alan Lescano (penalty) 56' for Vasco da Gama, Andrés Gómez 63' for Vasco da Gama, Ramon Rique Santos De Souza Barros 73' for Vasco da Gama.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Vasco da Gama's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Coritiba's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.