Udinese vs Cagliari Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Udinese 0-1 Cagliari.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Udinese, 30% draw, 31% Cagliari — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Udinese at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Udinese vs Cagliari
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Maduka OkoyeG
- 14James AbankwahD
- 27Christian KabaseleD
- 77Enzo EbosseD
- 23Mërgim VojvodaM
- 38Lennon MillerM
- 8Jesper KarlströmM
- 11Hassane KamaraM
- 10Nicolò ZanioloF
- 32Jürgen EkkelenkampF
- 9Keinan DavisF
- 7Idrissa GueyeF
- 30Giorgi ChakvetadzeM
- 46Unai GómezM
- 59Alessandro ZanoliD
- 15Vakoun Issouf BayoF
- 93Daniele PadelliG
- 41Bartosz MrozekG
- 13Nicolò BertolaD
- 6Oier ZarragaM
- 1Elia CaprileG
- 8Michel AdopoD
- 2Zé PedroD
- 26Yerry MinaD
- 15Juan RodríguezD
- 33Adam ObertD
- 4Alessandro RomanoM
- 6Harry WinksM
- 14Alessandro DeiolaM
- 31Paul MendyF
- 70Daniel MaldiniF
- 28Yukinari SugawaraD
- 9Kevin Carlos OmoruyiF
- 21Roberto GagliardiniM
- 39Alieu FaderaF
- 23Boris RadunovićG
- 12Alen SherriG
- 22Raphael KoflerD
- 24Giuseppe AurelioD
- 20Riccardo CiervoF
Form going into Udinese vs Cagliari
Udinese
All competitions we cover
- L3-5away to Inter14 September 2026
- L1-2Lazio7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Monza29 August 2026
- D1-1Como22 August 2026
Cagliari
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Atalanta12 September 2026
- W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
- L0-1Inter30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Parma22 August 2026
What these results say
- Udinese scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Udinese conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Udinese.
- Cagliari won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cagliari scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Cagliari had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Udinese | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 5 |
| 10 | Cagliari | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Udinese vs Cagliari
- 9 May 2026Cagliari 0–2 UdineseSerie A
- 5 October 2025Udinese 1–1 CagliariSerie A
- 3 May 2025Cagliari 1–2 UdineseSerie A
- 25 October 2024Udinese 2–0 CagliariSerie A
- 18 February 2024Udinese 1–1 CagliariSerie A
Leading scorers: Udinese and Cagliari
Udinese
GoalsAssists
- J. Ekkelenkamp31
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cagliari won 1–0 at Udinese. The model had leaned towards a win for Udinese at 39% and given a win for Cagliari 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: D. Maldini 54' for Cagliari. On expected goals it finished 1.92–1.12.
How the call on Udinese v Cagliari has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 39% / 30% / 31%: the biggest move is Udinese's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Udinese win39%▼ −4
- Draw30%▲ +2
- Cagliari win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.