Bologna
vs
Torino
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Bologna 1–0 Torino
The model makes it 43% Bologna, 29% draw, 28% Torino — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bologna 1.57, Torino 1.03.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bologna vs Torino
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Bologna wins, grey are draws, red are Torino wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bologna at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bologna vs Torino
Bologna
- L0-1away to Napoli13 September 2026
- D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
- L0-1Lazio24 August 2026
Torino
- L0-2AS Roma14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fiorentina5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sassuolo29 August 2026
- L1-2AC Milan23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bologna | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Torino | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bologna vs Torino
- 15 February 2026Torino 1–2 BolognaSerie A
- 29 October 2025Bologna 0–0 TorinoSerie A
- 14 February 2025Bologna 3–2 TorinoSerie A
- 21 December 2024Torino 0–2 BolognaSerie A
- 3 May 2024Torino 0–0 BolognaSerie A
- 27 November 2023Bologna 2–0 TorinoSerie A
Leading scorers: Bologna and Torino
Bologna
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Torino
- C. Adams2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bologna carry a model rating of 6.95 against 6.89 for Torino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Bologna and 1.03 for Torino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bologna rate 1.03 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Torino rate 1.01 and 0.94.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Torino, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bologna the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Bologna against 1.03 for Torino. Bologna's attack/defence rating is 1.03/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/0.94 for Torino.