Bologna vs Torino Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Bologna 1-1 Torino.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Bologna, 29% draw, 28% Torino — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bologna at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bologna vs Torino
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Łukasz SkorupskiG
- 5Eivind HellandD
- 14Torbjørn HeggemD
- 3Arthur TheateD
- 20Nadir ZorteaM
- 19Lewis FergusonM
- 4Tommaso PobegaM
- 33Juan MirandaM
- 10Federico BernardeschiF
- 91Roberto PiccoliF
- 28Nicolò CambiaghiF
- 29Lorenzo De SilvestriD
- 21Jens OdgaardF
- 7Riccardo OrsoliniF
- 6Nikola MoroM
- 2Emil HolmD
- 25Massimo PessinaG
- 72Ukko HapponenG
- 23Abdel RahimD
- 41Martin VitíkD
- 20Lucas PerriG
- 5Eray CömertD
- 44Ardian IsmajliD
- 23Saúl CocoD
- 29Niccolò FortiniM
- 21Daniel BragançaM
- 8Rolando MandragoraM
- 28Kian Fitz-JimM
- 77Alessio CacciamaniM
- 18Giovanni SimeoneF
- 10Nikola VlašićF
- 2Nathan PattersonD
- 17Sandro KulenovićF
- 45Rafik BelghaliD
- 11Gaetano OristanioM
- 6Emirhan İlkhanM
- 26Diego MascardiG
- 76Lapo SivieroG
- 13Ricardo RodríguezD
- 3Cristiano BiraghiD
Form going into Bologna vs Torino
Bologna
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Napoli13 September 2026
- D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atalanta31 August 2026
- L0-1Lazio24 August 2026
Torino
All competitions we cover
- L0-2AS Roma14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fiorentina5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sassuolo29 August 2026
- L1-2AC Milan23 August 2026
What these results say
- Bologna did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Bologna conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bologna failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Torino conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Torino failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Torino scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bologna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Torino | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bologna vs Torino
- 15 February 2026Torino 1–2 BolognaSerie A
- 29 October 2025Bologna 0–0 TorinoSerie A
- 14 February 2025Bologna 3–2 TorinoSerie A
- 21 December 2024Torino 0–2 BolognaSerie A
- 3 May 2024Torino 0–0 BolognaSerie A
Leading scorers: Bologna and Torino
Bologna
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Torino
GoalsAssists
- C. Adams40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bologna and Torino drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bologna at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: F. Bernardeschi 14' for Bologna, S. Kulenovic 77' for Torino. On expected goals it finished 0.58–0.87.