19 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

AS Roma vs Inter Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Full time2 – 2

Final score: AS Roma 2-2 Inter.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% AS Roma, 26% draw, 34% Inter — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AS Roma at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AS Roma5%Draw90%Inter5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Koneassist: N. Molina
6'
11'
N. Barella
⚽M. Koneassist: G. Mancini
37'
45+4'
M. Akanji
46'
⚽L. Martinezassist: M. Thuram
54'
🔁C. Jonesout: P. Sucic
54'
🔁F. Dimarcoout: Carlos Augusto
57'
A. Bastoni
🔁G. Manciniout: E. Ndicka
60'
🔁M. Koneout: N. Pisilli
60'
🔁N. Molinaout: D. Rensch
60'
63'
🔁A. Bastoniout: Luis Henrique
🔁L. Balerdiout: D. Ghilardi
66'
E. Ndicka
73'
79'
⚽L. Martinezassist: Y. Bisseck
🔁M. Hermosoout: K. Koulierakis
81'
K. Koulierakis
82'
D. Ghilardi
89'
90'
🔁M. Thuramout: A. Bonny
90'
🔁L. Martinezout: F. Esposito

Match stats — AS Roma vs Inter

49%Possession51%
18Shots16
4On target5
4Corners2
1.69xG2.37

Goals against chances

AS Roma2 from 1.69 xGabout what the chances were worth
Inter2 from 2.37 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AS Roma 3-4-2-1
  • 99Mile SvilarG
  • 23Gianluca ManciniD
  • 26Leonardo BalerdiD
  • 22Mario HermosoD
  • 43WesleyM
  • 4Bryan CristanteM
  • 17Manu KonéM
  • 20Nahuel MolinaM
  • 21Paulo DybalaF
  • 18Matías SouléF
  • 14Donyell MalenF
Substitutes
  • 5Evan NdickaD
  • 61Niccolò PisilliM
  • 2Devyne RenschD
  • 87Daniele GhilardiD
  • 3Konstantinos KoulierakisD
  • 70Giorgio De MarziG
  • 95Pierluigi GolliniG
  • 15Marten de RoonM
  • 86Rodrigo MoraM
Coach: Piero Gasperini Gian
Inter 3-1-4-2
  • 1Josep MartínezG
  • 31Yann BisseckD
  • 25Manuel AkanjiD
  • 95Alessandro BastoniD
  • 7Piotr ZielińskiM
  • 17Andy DioufM
  • 23Nicolò BarellaM
  • 21Curtis JonesM
  • 32Federico DimarcoM
  • 10Lautaro MartínezF
  • 9Marcus ThuramF
Substitutes
  • 30Carlos AugustoD
  • 8Petar SučićM
  • 11Luís HenriqueF
  • 14Ange-Yoan BonnyF
  • 94Pio EspositoF
  • 49Ivan ProvedelG
  • 12Raffaele Di GennaroG
  • 28Benjamin PavardD
  • 46Leonardo BovioD
Coach: Cristian Chivu

Form going into AS Roma vs Inter

AS Roma

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Torino14 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Fenerbahçe10 September 2026
  • W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
  • W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
  • W4-0Fiorentina24 August 2026

Inter

All competitions we cover

  • W5-3Udinese14 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Real Madrid8 September 2026
  • W3-2Napoli5 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Cagliari30 August 2026
  • W4-1Monza22 August 2026

What these results say

  • AS Roma went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • AS Roma scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • AS Roma won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Inter scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Inter won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Inter conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3AS Roma9630238+1521
1Inter98102510+1525

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Inter

  • 5 April 2026Inter 5–2 AS RomaSerie A
  • 18 October 2025AS Roma 0–1 InterSerie A
  • 27 April 2025Inter 0–1 AS RomaSerie A
  • 20 October 2024AS Roma 0–1 InterSerie A
  • 10 February 2024AS Roma 2–4 InterSerie A

The full AS Roma vs Inter record →

Leading scorers: AS Roma and Inter

AS Roma

GoalsAssists

  • D. Malen71
  • M. Soulé31

Inter

GoalsAssists

  • M. Thuram52
  • Lautaro Martínez40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AS Roma and Inter drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for AS Roma at 40% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Kone 6' for AS Roma, M. Kone 37' for AS Roma, L. Martinez 46' for Inter, L. Martinez 79' for Inter. On expected goals it finished 1.69–2.37.

How the call on AS Roma v Inter has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is Inter's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. AS Roma win40%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Inter win34%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.