Regular Season - 15 · 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Velež vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo Premijer Liga prediction

Stadion Rodjeni, Mostar

Our model says: Velež 1–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

The model makes it 42% Velež, 29% draw, 29% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Velež 1.44, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.11.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Velež's rating is built from 48 Bosnian Premier League matches and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Velež are 7th on 12 points from 12 games; Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are 6th on 13 points from 13 games — Premijer Liga.
  • Velež have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Čelik.
  • Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Siroki Brijeg.
  • Last 6 meetings: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3–1 Velež.

More Bosnian Premier League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Velež vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

52%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Velež win Draw Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 0–08%
  5. 2–08%
  6. 0–18%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Velež first; the other scorelines share the remaining 36%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Velež at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Velež vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Velež

Premijer Liga

  • D1-1Čelik7 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Sloga Doboj1 November 2026
  • L2-3BSK Banja Luka25 October 2026
  • D0-0Siroki Brijeg9 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Zrinjski19 September 2026

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Premijer Liga

  • L1-2away to Siroki Brijeg7 November 2026
  • L0-4Zrinjski31 October 2026
  • L0-2away to FK Sarajevo24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to BSK Banja Luka17 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Radnik Bijeljina11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Velež failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Velež had two goals or fewer.
  • Zeljeznicar Sarajevo did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Zeljeznicar Sarajevo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premijer Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Velež123361018-812
6Zeljeznicar Sarajevo133461321-813

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Velež

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 26% today

Win 20%
Draw 27%
Defeat 33%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 19% today

Win 12%
Draw 18%
Defeat 22%

From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Velež vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

  • 6 September 2026Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3–1 VeležPremijer Liga
  • 25 April 2026Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0–0 VeležPremijer Liga
  • 21 February 2026Velež 1–0 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
  • 2 November 2025Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1–2 VeležPremijer Liga
  • 15 August 2025Velež 0–1 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
  • 25 May 2025Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–1 VeležPremijer Liga

Leading scorers: Velež and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Velež

GoalsAssists

  • N. Stojanović11

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

GoalsAssists

  • M. Husković20
  • Rodrigo Piloto20
  • A. Pejić12

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (sixth, with Velež seventh), while our numbers lean to Velež. Velež rate 0.41 in attack and 2.04 in defence, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0.45 and 2.16 (lower is better in defence), so Velež have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Velež Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.41 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.45
2.04 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.16
1.44 Model expected goals (this match) 1.11

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Velež the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Velež against 1.11 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. Velež's attack/defence rating is 0.41/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.16 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.

Velež carry a model rating of 6.05 against 6.07 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 42% for Velež to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Velež to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Velež's ratings take away 1 point and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Velež's ratings42%−1
  5. Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's ratings42%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

VeležZeljeznicar Sarajevo
12Matches13
3W 3D 6LRecord3W 4D 6L
10 0.8 per gameGoals scored13 1.0 per game
18 1.5 per gameGoals conceded21 1.6 per game
4 of 12Clean sheets1 of 13
4 of 12Failed to score4 of 13
1 of 1Penalties scored–
16 1.3 per gameYellow cards26 2.0 per game
2Red cards0
4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

Velež at home · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away

6Played7
2W 3D 1LRecord0W 2D 5L
7–5Goals for – against4–13
3 of 6Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premijer Liga matches this season: Velež 12, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 13.

Velež scored 100306
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo conceded 134517

Velež score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have let in 7 there.

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scored 022153
Velež conceded 343233

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Velež have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Velež

  • at FK Sarajevo2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 16%
  • vs Zrinjski5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 18%
  • at Siroki Brijeg12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 27%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

  • vs Sloga Doboj2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 56%
  • at Čelik5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 29%
  • vs Radnik Bijeljina12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 46%
  • vs BSK Banja Luka6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 42%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.