Regular Season - 14 · 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Radnik Bijeljina vs Velež Premijer Liga prediction

Gradski stadion Bijeljina, Bijeljina

Our model says: Radnik Bijeljina 2–1 Velež

The model makes it 45% Radnik Bijeljina, 27% draw, 28% Velež — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Radnik Bijeljina 1.66, Velež 1.21.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Radnik Bijeljina's rating is built from 49 Bosnian Premier League matches and Velež's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Radnik Bijeljina are 9th on 11 points from 13 games; Velež are 7th on 12 points from 12 games — Premijer Liga.
  • Radnik Bijeljina have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Borac Banja Luka.
  • Velež have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Čelik.
  • Last 6 meetings: Velež 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Velež 1–1 Radnik Bijeljina.

More Bosnian Premier League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Radnik Bijeljina vs Velež

57%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Radnik Bijeljina win Draw Velež win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 0–16%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Radnik Bijeljina first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Radnik Bijeljina at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Radnik Bijeljina vs Velež

Radnik Bijeljina

Premijer Liga

  • L1-4away to Borac Banja Luka8 November 2026
  • W2-0Siroki Brijeg31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Zrinjski23 October 2026
  • D1-1FK Sarajevo17 October 2026
  • W3-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo11 October 2026

Velež

Premijer Liga

  • D1-1Čelik7 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Sloga Doboj1 November 2026
  • L2-3BSK Banja Luka25 October 2026
  • D0-0Siroki Brijeg9 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Zrinjski19 September 2026

What these results say

  • Radnik Bijeljina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Radnik Bijeljina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Velež failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Velež had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premijer Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Radnik Bijeljina132561926-711
7Velež123361018-812

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Radnik Bijeljina

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 25% today

Win 20%
Draw 28%
Defeat 32%

Velež

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 26% today

Win 17%
Draw 23%
Defeat 31%

From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Radnik Bijeljina vs Velež

  • 2 September 2026Velež 1–1 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
  • 1 May 2026Velež 1–0 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
  • 28 February 2026Radnik Bijeljina 1–0 VeležPremijer Liga
  • 9 November 2025Velež 1–0 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
  • 23 August 2025Radnik Bijeljina 3–0 VeležPremijer Liga
  • 13 April 2025Velež 3–2 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga

Leading scorers: Radnik Bijeljina and Velež

Radnik Bijeljina

GoalsAssists

  • D. Teodorović21
  • V. Bradonjić20
  • M. Ghorzi11

Velež

GoalsAssists

  • N. Stojanović11

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Velež (seventh, with Radnik Bijeljina ninth), while our numbers lean to Radnik Bijeljina. Radnik Bijeljina rate 0.50 in attack and 2.44 in defence, Velež 0.41 and 2.04 (lower is better in defence), so Radnik Bijeljina have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Radnik Bijeljina Velež
0.5 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.41
2.44 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.04
1.66 Model expected goals (this match) 1.21

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Radnik Bijeljina the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Radnik Bijeljina against 1.21 for Velež. Radnik Bijeljina's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/2.04 for Velež.

Radnik Bijeljina carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.05 for Velež. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 45% for Radnik Bijeljina to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Radnik Bijeljina to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Radnik Bijeljina's ratings add 2 points and Velež's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Radnik Bijeljina's ratings46%+2
  4. Velež's ratings45%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Radnik BijeljinaVelež
13Matches12
2W 5D 6LRecord3W 3D 6L
19 1.5 per gameGoals scored10 0.8 per game
26 2.0 per gameGoals conceded18 1.5 per game
2 of 13Clean sheets4 of 12
2 of 13Failed to score4 of 12
–Penalties scored1 of 1
35 2.7 per gameYellow cards16 1.3 per game
2Red cards2
4-2-3-1 3×Usual shape4-2-3-1 4×

Radnik Bijeljina at home · Velež away

6Played6
2W 2D 2LRecord1W 0D 5L
10–11Goals for – against3–13
1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premijer Liga matches this season: Radnik Bijeljina 13, Velež 12.

Radnik Bijeljina scored 215353
Velež conceded 343233
Velež scored 100305
Radnik Bijeljina conceded 225647

Velež score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Radnik Bijeljina have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Radnik Bijeljina

  • at Sloga Doboj28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 41%
  • vs Čelik2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 45%
  • vs BSK Banja Luka5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 42%
  • at Zeljeznicar Sarajevo12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 28%
  • at FK Sarajevo6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 16%

Velež

  • vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 42%
  • at FK Sarajevo2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 16%
  • vs Zrinjski5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 18%
  • at Siroki Brijeg12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 27%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.