Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
vs
Borac Banja Luka
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0–2 Borac Banja Luka
The model makes it 19% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, 24% draw, 57% Borac Banja Luka — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Expected goals: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0.99, Borac Banja Luka 2.06.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Borac Banja Luka are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's rating is built from 49 Bosnian Premier League matches and Borac Banja Luka's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are 6th on 13 points from 13 games; Borac Banja Luka are 2nd on 31 points from 12 games — Premijer Liga.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Siroki Brijeg.
- Borac Banja Luka are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Radnik Bijeljina.
- Last 6 meetings: Borac Banja Luka 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Borac Banja Luka 2–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Borac Banja Luka
Has the model earned this number?
Borac Banja Luka at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Borac Banja Luka
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Premijer Liga
- L1-2away to Siroki Brijeg7 November 2026
- L0-4Zrinjski31 October 2026
- L0-2away to FK Sarajevo24 October 2026
- D1-1away to BSK Banja Luka17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Radnik Bijeljina11 October 2026
Borac Banja Luka
Premijer Liga
- W4-1Radnik Bijeljina8 November 2026
- W4-2away to Čelik31 October 2026
- W2-0Sloga Doboj25 October 2026
- W2-0BSK Banja Luka10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Siroki Brijeg20 September 2026
What these results say
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Borac Banja Luka won every one of these 5 matches.
- Borac Banja Luka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 13 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 10 | +17 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 19% today
Borac Banja Luka
Chance to win the league · 42% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Borac Banja Luka
- 2 September 2026Borac Banja Luka 2–0 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 16 May 2026Borac Banja Luka 1–0 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 14 March 2026Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0–1 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
- 29 November 2025Borac Banja Luka 2–1 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 15 September 2025Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3–2 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
- 23 April 2025Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–1 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
Leading scorers: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Borac Banja Luka
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
GoalsAssists
- M. Husković20
- Rodrigo Piloto20
- A. Pejić12
Borac Banja Luka
GoalsAssists
- L. Juričić62
- A. Roguljić20
- A. Hiroš12
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zeljeznicar Sarajevo a 0% chance of the title and Borac Banja Luka 41.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Zeljeznicar Sarajevo v Borac Banja Luka has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 20% / 25% / 55% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 19% / 24% / 57%: the biggest move is Borac Banja Luka's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win19%▼ −1
- Draw24%▼ −1
- Borac Banja Luka win57%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borac Banja Luka the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo against 2.06 for Borac Banja Luka. Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.35 for Borac Banja Luka.
How the model reaches 57% for Borac Banja Luka to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Borac Banja Luka to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's ratings add 13 points and Borac Banja Luka's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's ratings42%+13
- Borac Banja Luka's ratings57%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home · Borac Banja Luka away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 13, Borac Banja Luka 12.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Borac Banja Luka have let in 1 there.
Borac Banja Luka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- at Velež28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 29%
- vs Sloga Doboj2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 56%
- at Čelik5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 29%
- vs Radnik Bijeljina12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 46%
- vs BSK Banja Luka6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 42%
Borac Banja Luka
- vs Atalanta26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 27%
- vs FK Sarajevo28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 53%
- at Zrinjski2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 27%
- vs Siroki Brijeg5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 72%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.