Čelik
vs
BSK Banja Luka
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Čelik 2–1 BSK Banja Luka
The model makes it 42% Čelik, 24% draw, 34% BSK Banja Luka — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Čelik 1.92, BSK Banja Luka 1.66.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Čelik's rating is built from 13 Bosnian Premier League matches and BSK Banja Luka's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Čelik are 8th on 11 points from 13 games; BSK Banja Luka are 5th on 16 points from 13 games — Premijer Liga.
- Čelik have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Velež.
- BSK Banja Luka are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Sloga Doboj.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Čelik vs BSK Banja Luka
Has the model earned this number?
Čelik at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Čelik vs BSK Banja Luka
Čelik
Premijer Liga
- D1-1away to Velež7 November 2026
- L2-4Borac Banja Luka31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Siroki Brijeg24 October 2026
- L0-3Zrinjski18 October 2026
- D0-0FK Sarajevo11 October 2026
BSK Banja Luka
Premijer Liga
- W3-1away to Sloga Doboj8 November 2026
- D1-1FK Sarajevo1 November 2026
- W3-2away to Velež25 October 2026
- D1-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Borac Banja Luka10 October 2026
What these results say
- Čelik did not win any of these 5 matches.
- BSK Banja Luka conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- BSK Banja Luka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for BSK Banja Luka.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Čelik | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 11 |
| 5 | BSK Banja Luka | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Čelik
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 24% today
BSK Banja Luka
Chance to finish in the top four · 31% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Čelik vs BSK Banja Luka
- 5 September 2026BSK Banja Luka 3–2 ČelikPremijer Liga
Leading scorers: Čelik and BSK Banja Luka
Čelik
GoalsAssists
- A. Hrvanović22
- Anes Mašić11
BSK Banja Luka
GoalsAssists
- D. Čavić31
- S. Marčetić20
- D. Dizdarevic11
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour BSK Banja Luka (fifth, with Čelik eighth), while our numbers lean to Čelik. Čelik rate 0.47 in attack and 2.26 in defence, BSK Banja Luka 0.61 and 2.51 (lower is better in defence), so Čelik have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Čelik the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Čelik against 1.66 for BSK Banja Luka. Čelik's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/2.51 for BSK Banja Luka.
How the model reaches 42% for Čelik to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Čelik to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, Čelik's ratings take away 3 points and BSK Banja Luka's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level47%+3
- Čelik's ratings44%−3
- BSK Banja Luka's ratings42%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Čelik at home · BSK Banja Luka away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Čelik 13, BSK Banja Luka 13.
Čelik score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); BSK Banja Luka have let in 3 there.
BSK Banja Luka score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Čelik have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Čelik
- at Radnik Bijeljina2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 30%
- vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 44%
- at FK Sarajevo12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 17%
- at Zrinjski6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 9%
BSK Banja Luka
- vs Siroki Brijeg2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 50%
- at Radnik Bijeljina5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 34%
- vs Borac Banja Luka12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 22%
- at Zeljeznicar Sarajevo6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.