Siroki Brijeg
vs
Zrinjski
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Siroki Brijeg 0–1 Zrinjski
The model makes it 19% Siroki Brijeg, 26% draw, 55% Zrinjski — fair odds of 5.26, 3.85 and 1.82.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).
Expected goals: Siroki Brijeg 0.85, Zrinjski 1.83.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Zrinjski are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Siroki Brijeg's rating is built from 49 Bosnian Premier League matches and Zrinjski's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Siroki Brijeg are 4th on 17 points from 13 games; Zrinjski are top on 34 points from 13 games — Premijer Liga.
- Siroki Brijeg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
- Zrinjski are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to FK Sarajevo.
- Last 6 meetings: Zrinjski 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Zrinjski 2–1 Siroki Brijeg.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Siroki Brijeg vs Zrinjski
Has the model earned this number?
Zrinjski at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Siroki Brijeg vs Zrinjski
Siroki Brijeg
Premijer Liga
- W2-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Radnik Bijeljina31 October 2026
- D0-0Čelik24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Sloga Doboj16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Velež9 October 2026
Zrinjski
Premijer Liga
- D0-0FK Sarajevo8 November 2026
- W4-0away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo31 October 2026
- W1-0Radnik Bijeljina23 October 2026
- W3-0away to Čelik18 October 2026
- W6-2away to Sloga Doboj11 October 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Siroki Brijeg had two goals or fewer.
- Zrinjski went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Zrinjski won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zrinjski scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 17 |
| 1 | Zrinjski | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Siroki Brijeg
Chance to finish in the top four · 24% today
Zrinjski
Chance to win the league · 58% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Siroki Brijeg vs Zrinjski
- 6 September 2026Zrinjski 2–1 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 11 July 2026Siroki Brijeg 0–2 ZrinjskiFriendlies Clubs
- 26 April 2026Siroki Brijeg 2–1 ZrinjskiPremijer Liga
- 22 February 2026Zrinjski 1–1 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 1 November 2025Siroki Brijeg 1–2 ZrinjskiPremijer Liga
- 17 August 2025Zrinjski 0–0 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
Leading scorers: Siroki Brijeg and Zrinjski
Siroki Brijeg
GoalsAssists
- M. Matić11
Zrinjski
GoalsAssists
- A. Ilic31
- N. Bilbija31
- M. Ćuže20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Siroki Brijeg a 0% chance of the title and Zrinjski 57.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zrinjski the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Siroki Brijeg against 1.83 for Zrinjski. Siroki Brijeg's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.22 for Zrinjski.
How the model reaches 55% for Zrinjski to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Zrinjski to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Siroki Brijeg's ratings add 13 points and Zrinjski's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Siroki Brijeg's ratings41%+13
- Zrinjski's ratings55%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Siroki Brijeg at home · Zrinjski away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Siroki Brijeg 13, Zrinjski 13.
Zrinjski score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Siroki Brijeg have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Siroki Brijeg
- at BSK Banja Luka2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 26%
- at Borac Banja Luka5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 10%
- vs Velež12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 44%
- vs Sloga Doboj6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 55%
Zrinjski
- vs Borac Banja Luka2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 45%
- at Velež5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 57%
- vs Sloga Doboj12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 81%
- vs Čelik6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 74%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.