FK Sarajevo
vs
Siroki Brijeg
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: FK Sarajevo 1–0 Siroki Brijeg
The model makes it 55% FK Sarajevo, 28% draw, 17% Siroki Brijeg — fair odds of 1.82, 3.57 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: FK Sarajevo 1.58, Siroki Brijeg 0.65.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to FK Sarajevo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. FK Sarajevo's rating is built from 49 Bosnian Premier League matches and Siroki Brijeg's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FK Sarajevo are 3rd on 20 points from 13 games; Siroki Brijeg are 4th on 17 points from 13 games — Premijer Liga.
- FK Sarajevo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Zrinjski.
- Siroki Brijeg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
- Last 6 meetings: Siroki Brijeg 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Siroki Brijeg 1–2 FK Sarajevo.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FK Sarajevo vs Siroki Brijeg
Has the model earned this number?
FK Sarajevo at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FK Sarajevo vs Siroki Brijeg
FK Sarajevo
Premijer Liga
- D0-0away to Zrinjski8 November 2026
- D1-1away to BSK Banja Luka1 November 2026
- W2-0Zeljeznicar Sarajevo24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Radnik Bijeljina17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Čelik11 October 2026
Siroki Brijeg
Premijer Liga
- W2-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Radnik Bijeljina31 October 2026
- D0-0Čelik24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Sloga Doboj16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Velež9 October 2026
What these results say
- FK Sarajevo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FK Sarajevo had two goals or fewer.
- FK Sarajevo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Siroki Brijeg had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 20 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FK Sarajevo
Chance to finish in the top four · 94% today
Siroki Brijeg
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FK Sarajevo vs Siroki Brijeg
- 2 September 2026Siroki Brijeg 1–2 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 16 May 2026FK Sarajevo 2–2 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 15 March 2026Siroki Brijeg 1–0 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 29 November 2025FK Sarajevo 0–0 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 14 September 2025Siroki Brijeg 2–1 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 14 May 2025Siroki Brijeg 1–1 FK SarajevoCup
Leading scorers: FK Sarajevo and Siroki Brijeg
FK Sarajevo
GoalsAssists
- R. Caraballo20
Siroki Brijeg
GoalsAssists
- M. Matić11
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FK Sarajevo a 0.2% chance of the title and Siroki Brijeg 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Sarajevo the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for FK Sarajevo against 0.65 for Siroki Brijeg. FK Sarajevo's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.02 for Siroki Brijeg.
How the model reaches 55% for FK Sarajevo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FK Sarajevo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, FK Sarajevo's ratings add 5 points and Siroki Brijeg's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level41%−3
- FK Sarajevo's ratings46%+5
- Siroki Brijeg's ratings55%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FK Sarajevo at home · Siroki Brijeg away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: FK Sarajevo 13, Siroki Brijeg 13.
FK Sarajevo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Siroki Brijeg have let in 2 there.
Siroki Brijeg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); FK Sarajevo have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FK Sarajevo
- at Borac Banja Luka28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 20%
- vs Velež2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 56%
- at Sloga Doboj5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 51%
- vs Čelik12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 57%
- vs Radnik Bijeljina6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 59%
Siroki Brijeg
- vs Zrinjski28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 19%
- at BSK Banja Luka2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 26%
- at Borac Banja Luka5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 10%
- vs Velež12 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 44%
- vs Sloga Doboj6 Feb · Premijer Ligawin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.