Vasco da Gama
vs
Remo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Vasco da Gama 2–1 Remo
The model makes it 47% Vasco da Gama, 27% draw, 26% Remo — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Vasco da Gama 1.91, Remo 1.09.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Vasco da Gama vs Remo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasco da Gama at 47% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Remo
Vasco da Gama
- W5-0Coritiba19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gremio12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Fluminense6 September 2026
- W3-1Cruzeiro30 August 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
Remo
- L1-2Santos19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bahia14 September 2026
- L0-1Flamengo6 September 2026
- L2-3Coritiba31 August 2026
- L1-2away to Fluminense22 August 2026
What these results say
- Vasco da Gama scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vasco da Gama had three goals or more.
- Remo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Remo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Remo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Remo
- 11 April 2026Remo 1–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 19 November 2021Vasco da Gama 2–2 RemoSerie B
- 14 August 2021Remo 2–1 Vasco da GamaSerie B
- 28 April 2016Vasco da Gama 2–1 RemoCopa Do Brasil
- 14 April 2016Remo 0–1 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Remo
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Remo
- Jája Silva7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vasco da Gama carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.57 for Remo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.09 for Remo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasco da Gama rate 0.89 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Remo rate 0.78 and 1.36.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasco da Gama the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Vasco da Gama against 1.09 for Remo. Vasco da Gama's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.36 for Remo.