10 October 2026, 21:00 UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Remo Serie A prediction & result

São Januário, Rio de Janeiro
Referee: Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva, Brazil
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Vasco da Gama 0-0 Remo.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Vasco da Gama, 25% draw, 22% Remo — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vasco da Gama at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vasco da Gama5%Draw92%Remo3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Zé Ivaldo
Alan Saldivia
49'
🔁Facundo Colidioout: Nuno Moreira
51'
59'
🔁Marcelo Rodrigues Souzaout: David Francisco·Trindade Braga
59'
🔁Marlonout: Mayk Van Van
🔁Lucas Pitonout: Cuiabano
65'
🔁Davidout: Claudio Spinelli
65'
🔁Alan Lescanoout: Ramon Rique Santos De Souza Barros
65'
71'
🔁Eduardo Meloout: Jandir Breno Souza Silva
71'
🔁Ze Ricardoout: Leonel Picco
Jair
75'
🔁Jairout: Santiago Sosa
80'
84'
🔁Glaybson Yago Souza Lisboaout: Matheus Alexandre
90+4'
Marcelo Rangel

Match stats — Vasco da Gama vs Remo

63%Possession37%
17Shots9
5On target3
6Corners5
0.92xG0.31

Goals against chances

Vasco da Gama0 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth
Remo0 from 0.31 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vasco da Gama 4-2-3-1
  • 1Léo JardimG
  • 2J. RodríguezD
  • 4A. SaldiviaD
  • 30Robert RenanD
  • 6Lucas PitonD
  • 8JairM
  • 23Thiago MendesM
  • 11A. GómezM
  • 22A. LescanoM
  • 9F. ColidioM
  • 7DavidF
Substitutes
  • 3Tchê TchêM
  • 77C. SpinelliF
  • 43Lucas FreitasD
  • 96Paulo HenriqueD
  • 28AdsonF
  • 13Daniel FuzatoG
  • 18M. HinestrozaF
  • 55Gabriel PereiraD
  • 17Nuno MoreiraM
Coach: Pedro Emanuel
Remo 5-4-1
  • 88Marcelo RangelG
  • 79MarcelinhoD
  • 13MarllonD
  • 28José WelisonD
  • 27Zé IvaldoD
  • 6MarlonD
  • 22Yago PikachuM
  • 55Zé RicardoM
  • 8PatrickM
  • 19Gabriel TaliariM
  • 39Eduardo MeloF
Substitutes
  • 2Matheus AlexandreD
  • 9Gabriel PovedaF
  • 10JádersonF
  • 15Vitor BuenoF
  • 20Andres Dionicio Moreno GonzalezF
  • 14L. PiccoM
  • 97IvanG
  • 7Jája SilvaM
  • 26David FranciscoM
Coach: Thiago Carpini

Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Remo

Vasco da Gama

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Botafogo7 October 2026
  • W5-0Coritiba19 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Gremio12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Fluminense6 September 2026
  • W3-1Cruzeiro30 August 2026

Remo

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Gremio7 October 2026
  • L1-2Santos19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Bahia14 September 2026
  • L0-1Flamengo6 September 2026
  • L2-3Coritiba31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Vasco da Gama won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vasco da Gama scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Remo did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Remo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Remo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Vasco da Gama33118144350-741
19Remo34611173757-2029

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Remo

  • 11 April 2026Remo 1–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
  • 19 November 2021Vasco da Gama 2–2 RemoSerie B
  • 14 August 2021Remo 2–1 Vasco da GamaSerie B
  • 28 April 2016Vasco da Gama 2–1 RemoCopa Do Brasil
  • 14 April 2016Remo 0–1 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil

The full Vasco da Gama vs Remo record →

Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Remo

Vasco da Gama

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.

Remo

GoalsAssists

  • Jája Silva91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Vasco da Gama and Remo drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Vasco da Gama at 53% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.92–0.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vasco da Gama these chances to finish in the bottom three: 1.2% after a win, 3.5% after a draw, 6.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 3.5%.

For Remo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 92.9% going in: 84.0% after a win, 93.1% after a draw, 96.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 93.1%.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Vasco da Gama v Remo has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 53% / 25% / 22%: the biggest move is Vasco da Gama's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Vasco da Gama win53%▲ +6
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Remo win22%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.