9 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

Palmeiras vs Bahia Serie A prediction & result

Allianz Parque, Sao Paulo
Referee: Braulio Da Silva Machado, Brazil
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Palmeiras, 25% draw, 18% Bahia — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Palmeiras at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Palmeiras98%Draw2%Bahia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽José Manuel Lópezassist: Alexander Barboza
7'
61'
Nicolas Acevedo
Khellven Douglas Silva Oliveira
64'
65'
🔁erick pulgaout: Ademir
65'
🔁Nicolas Acevedoout: Caio Alexandre
65'
🔁Rodrigo Nestorout: Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho
🔁Vitor Roqueout: Ramon Sosa
69'
🔁José Manuel Lópezout: Jhon Arias
69'
82'
🔁Cristian Oliveraout: Mateo Naín Sanabria
82'
🔁Alejo Velizout: Willian José
87'
Jean Lucas
🔁Andreas Pereiraout: Felipe Anderson
87'

Match stats — Palmeiras vs Bahia

41%Possession59%
25Shots10
11On target1
7Corners3

Line-ups

Palmeiras 3-4-2-1
  • 1Carlos MiguelG
  • 26MuriloD
  • 15G. GómezD
  • 2A. BarbozaD
  • 12KhellvenM
  • 8Andreas PereiraM
  • 17Marlon FreitasM
  • 56ArthurM
  • 42J. LópezM
  • 30Lucas EvangelistaM
  • 9Vitor RoqueF
Substitutes
  • 3Bruno FuchsD
  • 11J. AriasM
  • 4A. GiayD
  • 14Marcelo LombaG
  • 18MaurícioM
  • 32E. MartínezM
  • 50Luis FelipeM
  • 22J. PiquerezD
  • 37FabianoM
Coach: Abel Ferreira
Bahia 4-3-3
  • 1RonaldoG
  • 31Roman GomezD
  • 33David DuarteD
  • 4KanuD
  • 46Luciano JubaD
  • 11Rodrigo NestorM
  • 5N. AcevedoM
  • 6Jean LucasM
  • 99C. OliveraF
  • 9A. VélizF
  • 16Erick PulgaF
Substitutes
  • 3Marco MorenoD
  • 17G. HerreraG
  • 44Marcos VictorD
  • 14ErickM
  • 15M. AraújoM
  • 23M. SanabriaF
  • 8Caio AlexandreM
  • 27EveraldoF
  • 7AdemirF
Coach: Rogério Ceni

Form going into Palmeiras vs Bahia

Palmeiras

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Gremio20 September 2026
  • W2-0Sao Paulo12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Mirassol30 August 2026
  • W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026

Bahia

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Atletico Paranaense20 September 2026
  • W2-1Remo14 September 2026
  • W3-2away to RB Bragantino5 September 2026
  • W3-2Internacional30 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Vitoria23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Palmeiras had two goals or fewer.
  • Bahia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Bahia won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bahia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Palmeiras34211036223+3973
6Bahia34141195045+553

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Bahia

  • 5 April 2026Bahia 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 28 September 2025Bahia 1–0 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 27 April 2025Palmeiras 0–1 BahiaSerie A
  • 20 November 2024Bahia 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
  • 7 July 2024Palmeiras 2–0 BahiaSerie A
  • 28 October 2023Palmeiras 1–0 BahiaSerie A

The full Palmeiras vs Bahia record →

Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Bahia

Palmeiras

GoalsAssists

  • J. López107
  • Maurício101

Bahia

GoalsAssists

  • Luciano Juba112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Palmeiras beat Bahia 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Palmeiras at 57%. The goal: José Manuel López 7' for Palmeiras.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Palmeiras a 28.9% chance to win the league: 32.7% after a win, 24.0% after a draw, 17.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.7%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Bahia the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 22.1% going in: 36.3% after a win, 23.9% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.7%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Palmeiras v Bahia has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 51% / 28% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 57% / 25% / 18%: the biggest move is Palmeiras's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Palmeiras win57%▲ +6
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Bahia win18%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.