Palmeiras
vs
Bahia
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia
The model makes it 51% Palmeiras, 28% draw, 21% Bahia — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.84, Bahia 0.80.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Palmeiras vs Bahia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 51% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 673 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Palmeiras vs Bahia
Palmeiras
- D0-0away to Gremio20 September 2026
- W2-0Sao Paulo12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Mirassol30 August 2026
- W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
Bahia
- L1-2away to Atletico Paranaense20 September 2026
- W2-1Remo14 September 2026
- W3-2away to RB Bragantino5 September 2026
- W3-2Internacional30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Vitoria23 August 2026
What these results say
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Palmeiras had two goals or fewer.
- Bahia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bahia won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bahia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Bahia
- 5 April 2026Bahia 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 28 September 2025Bahia 1–0 PalmeirasSerie A
- 27 April 2025Palmeiras 0–1 BahiaSerie A
- 20 November 2024Bahia 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 7 July 2024Palmeiras 2–0 BahiaSerie A
- 28 October 2023Palmeiras 1–0 BahiaSerie A
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Bahia
Palmeiras
- J. López8 goals4 assists
- Maurício7 goals1 assists
Bahia
- Luciano Juba9 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Palmeiras carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.77 for Bahia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Palmeiras and 0.80 for Bahia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Palmeiras rate 1.04 in attack and 0.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bahia rate 0.96 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Palmeiras a 32.8% chance of the title and Bahia 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Palmeiras against 0.8 for Bahia. Palmeiras's attack/defence rating is 1.04/0.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.12 for Bahia.