10 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Genoa vs Fiorentina Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Referee: Fabio Maresca, Italy
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Genoa, 28% draw, 42% Fiorentina — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fiorentina at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Milutin Osmajićassist: Mikael Ellertsson
7'
15'
Luca Ranieri
⚽Junior Messiasassist: Milutin Osmajić
15'
21'
Christ Inao Oulaï
45'
🔁Christ Inao Oulaïout: Alieu Njie
45'
🔁Luca Ranieriout: Viery
🔁Junior Messiasout: Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira
57'
🔁Stephan El Shaarawyout: Samuel Wiafe
57'
60'
Viery
65'
🔁Betoout: Mateo Pellegrino
🔁Sebastian Otoaout: Alessandro Marcandalli
66'
73'
⚽Johan Vásquez (OG)
Hamed Junior Traorè
73'
80'
🔁Álex Jiménezout: Domilson Dodo
81'
🔁Wilfried Gnontoout: Pedro Goncalves
🔁Mikael Ellertssonout: Stefano Sabelli
81'
🔁Kingsley Ehizibueout: David Puczka
81'
Johan Vásquez
84'
Samuel Wiafe
85'
Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira
90+1'
Stefano Sabelli
90+5'

Match stats — Genoa vs Fiorentina

37%Possession63%
10Shots13
4On target3
3Corners4
1.41xG0.99

Goals against chances

Genoa2 from 1.41 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fiorentina1 from 0.99 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Genoa 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. BijlowG
  • 34S. OtoaD
  • 5L. ØstigårdD
  • 22J. VásquezD
  • 3K. EhizibueM
  • 32M. FrendrupM
  • 25H. TraorèM
  • 77M. EllertssonM
  • 10Junior MessiasM
  • 92S. El ShaarawyM
  • 18M. OsmajićF
Substitutes
  • 16C. DramehD
  • 8T. BaldanziM
  • 75Gaël LafontM
  • 27A. MarcandalliD
  • 2M. MitajD
  • 31D. PuczkaD
  • 21Nikita SolodchenkoF
  • 20S. SabelliD
  • 39D. SommarivaG
Coach: D. De Rossi
Fiorentina 4-2-3-1
  • 43David de GeaG
  • 20Álex JiménezD
  • 3R. DrăgușinD
  • 6L. RanieriD
  • 21ValdeD
  • 27C. NdourM
  • 44N. FagioliM
  • 30Franco MastantuonoM
  • 42C. Inao OulaïM
  • 29W. GnontoM
  • 23BetoF
Substitutes
  • 33VieryD
  • 28PoteM
  • 5M. PongračićD
  • 32Mateo PellegrinoF
  • 25A. NjieF
  • 19L. LezzeriniG
  • 17João MárioD
  • 2DodôD
  • 53O. ChristensenG
Coach: P. Vanoli

Form going into Genoa vs Fiorentina

Genoa

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Parma20 September 2026
  • D1-1Frosinone12 September 2026
  • L1-4Como4 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Lazio30 August 2026
  • L0-2Napoli22 August 2026

Fiorentina

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Napoli20 September 2026
  • W4-2away to Venezia11 September 2026
  • L1-2Torino5 September 2026
  • L0-3Frosinone29 August 2026
  • L0-4away to AS Roma24 August 2026

What these results say

  • Genoa did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Genoa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Fiorentina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Fiorentina had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Genoa114161116-513
15Fiorentina112361725-89

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Genoa vs Fiorentina

  • 10 May 2026Fiorentina 0–0 GenoaSerie A
  • 9 November 2025Genoa 2–2 FiorentinaSerie A
  • 2 February 2025Fiorentina 2–1 GenoaSerie A
  • 31 October 2024Genoa 0–1 FiorentinaSerie A
  • 15 April 2024Fiorentina 1–1 GenoaSerie A

The full Genoa vs Fiorentina record →

Leading scorers: Genoa and Fiorentina

Genoa

GoalsAssists

  • M. Osmajić41

Fiorentina

GoalsAssists

  • Mateo Pellegrino40
  • Franco Mastantuono40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Genoa beat Fiorentina 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Fiorentina at 42% and given a win for Genoa 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Milutin Osmajić 7' for Genoa, Junior Messias 15' for Genoa, Johan Vásquez (own goal) 73' for Fiorentina. On expected goals it finished 1.41–0.99.

How the call on Genoa v Fiorentina has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 31% / 30% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 30% / 28% / 42%: the biggest move is Fiorentina's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Genoa win30%▼ −1
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Fiorentina win42%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.