Genoa
vs
Fiorentina
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Genoa 0–1 Fiorentina
The model makes it 31% Genoa, 30% draw, 39% Fiorentina — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Genoa 1.13, Fiorentina 1.43.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Genoa vs Fiorentina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fiorentina at 39% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Genoa vs Fiorentina
Genoa
- L1-2away to Parma20 September 2026
- D1-1Frosinone12 September 2026
- L1-4Como4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lazio30 August 2026
- L0-2Napoli22 August 2026
Fiorentina
- D1-1Napoli20 September 2026
- W4-2away to Venezia11 September 2026
- L1-2Torino5 September 2026
- L0-3Frosinone29 August 2026
- L0-4away to AS Roma24 August 2026
What these results say
- Genoa did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Genoa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fiorentina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fiorentina had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Genoa vs Fiorentina
- 10 May 2026Fiorentina 0–0 GenoaSerie A
- 9 November 2025Genoa 2–2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2 February 2025Fiorentina 2–1 GenoaSerie A
- 31 October 2024Genoa 0–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 15 April 2024Fiorentina 1–1 GenoaSerie A
- 19 August 2023Genoa 1–4 FiorentinaSerie A
Leading scorers: Genoa and Fiorentina
Genoa
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Fiorentina
- Franco Mastantuono3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Genoa carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.87 for Fiorentina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Genoa and 1.43 for Fiorentina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Genoa rate 0.80 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fiorentina rate 1.06 and 1.02.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fiorentina the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Genoa against 1.43 for Fiorentina. Genoa's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.02 for Fiorentina.