10 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

Charlotte vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
Referee: Drew Fischer, Canada
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Charlotte 3-2 FC Dallas.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Charlotte, 25% draw, 28% FC Dallas — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Charlotte at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Charlotte5%Draw91%FC Dallas4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
⚽Logan Farringtonassist: Herman Johansson
45'
🔁Lalas Abubakarout: Sebastien Ibeagha
60'
🔁Logan Farringtonout: Petar Musa
60'
🔁Patrickson Delgadoout: Santiago Moreno
🔁David Schneggout: Harry Toffolo
60'
🔁Brandt Bronicoout: Luca De La Torre
60'
64'
⚽Petar Musaassist: Santiago Moreno
🔁Liel Abadaout: Rodolfo Aloko
69'
🔁Nathan Byrneout: Will Cleary
69'
⚽Idan Toklomati Jornoassist: Allan Saint-Maximin
70'
⚽Harry Toffoloassist: Idan Toklomati Jorno
74'
75'
🔁Herman Johanssonout: Bernard Kamungo
79'
Osaze Urhoghide
84'
🔁Joaquín Valiente Cioliout: Daniel Job
Morrison Agyemang
86'
⚽Idan Toklomati Jornoassist: Pep Biel
90+2'
🔁Allan Saint-Maximinout: Djibril Diani
90+3'

Match stats — Charlotte vs FC Dallas

56%Possession44%
18Shots13
8On target5
14Corners3
3.51xG2.17

Goals against chances

Charlotte3 from 3.51 xGless than the chances were worth
FC Dallas2 from 2.17 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Charlotte 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. KahlinaG
  • 14N. ByrneD
  • 44M. AgyemangD
  • 22H. KesslerD
  • 23D. SchneggD
  • 8A. WestwoodM
  • 13B. BronicoM
  • 11L. AbadaM
  • 16Pep BielM
  • 10A. Saint-MaximinM
  • 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
Substitutes
  • 37R. AlokoF
  • 35Will ClearyD
  • 17L. de la TorreM
  • 28D. DianiM
  • 21T. MillerG
  • 4A. PrivettD
  • 71N. RichmondF
  • 25Tyger SmallsF
  • 15H. ToffoloD
Coach: D. Smith
FC Dallas 3-4-2-1
  • 42DanielG
  • 3O. UrhoghideD
  • 5L. AbubakarD
  • 32N. NorrisD
  • 14H. JohanssonM
  • 55KaickM
  • 12C. CappisM
  • 18S. MooreM
  • 21J. ValienteM
  • 8P. DelgadoM
  • 23L. FarringtonF
Substitutes
  • 17RamiroM
  • 28Samuel SarverF
  • 40J. SiroisG
  • 9P. MusaF
  • 10S. MorenoF
  • 77B. KamungoF
  • 7D. JobM
  • 25S. IbeaghaD
  • 6R. BinyaminM
Coach: Eric Quill

Form going into Charlotte vs FC Dallas

Charlotte

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Chicago Fire26 September 2026
  • W2-1away to DC United19 September 2026
  • D3-3away to FC Cincinnati12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to CF Montreal9 September 2026
  • D0-0Houston Dynamo5 September 2026

FC Dallas

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Los Angeles FC27 September 2026
  • D0-0Austin20 September 2026
  • W2-1Portland Timbers13 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Minnesota United FC10 September 2026
  • W4-3Sporting Kansas City6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Charlotte conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Dallas went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Dallas won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Dallas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Charlotte34159106651+1554
2FC Dallas34161086251+1158

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Charlotte vs FC Dallas

  • 22 July 2023FC Dallas 2–2 CharlotteLeagues Cup

Leading scorers: Charlotte and FC Dallas

Charlotte

GoalsAssists

  • I. Toklomati Giorno155

FC Dallas

GoalsAssists

  • P. Musa225

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Charlotte beat FC Dallas 3–2. The model had made a win for Charlotte its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Logan Farrington 22' for FC Dallas, Petar Musa 64' for FC Dallas, Idan Toklomati Jorno 70' for Charlotte, Harry Toffolo 74' for Charlotte, Idan Toklomati Jorno 90+2' for Charlotte. On expected goals it finished 3.51–2.17.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Charlotte a 45.5% chance to finish in the top four: 56.2% after a win, 38.0% after a draw, 29.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.2%, 10.7 points higher than before the match.

For FC Dallas the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 85.3% going in: 94.3% after a win, 87.0% after a draw, 80.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.7%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.