Napoli vs Frosinone Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Napoli 3-0 Frosinone.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Napoli, 29% draw, 28% Frosinone — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Napoli at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Napoli vs Frosinone
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. MeretG
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 5B. BadiashileD
- 22G. Di LorenzoM
- 11K. De BruyneM
- 68S. LobotkaM
- 37L. SpinazzolaM
- 7David NeresM
- 70N. LangM
- 19R. HøjlundF
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 14N. ContiniG
- 6B. GilmourM
- 23GiovaneF
- 20L. LuccaF
- 35Luca MarianucciD
- 8S. McTominayM
- 32V. Milinković-SavićG
- 21M. PolitanoF
- 22L. PalmisaniG
- 20A. OyonoD
- 3G. CalvaniD
- 2G. CittadiniD
- 79G. BracagliaD
- 73P. MasiniM
- 14G. CalòM
- 7F. GhedjemisM
- 10R. SchmidM
- 17G. KvernadzeM
- 9A. RaimondoF
- 16Matteo CichellaM
- 91S. DesplanchesG
- 74Omar FayedD
- 40S. FiniF
- 30I. MonterisiD
- 12M. PisseriG
- 90E. TchatoD
- 71A. TerzićD
- 24A. ZerbinF
Form going into Napoli vs Frosinone
Napoli
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Fiorentina20 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna13 September 2026
- L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026
- L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
- L1-2Como30 August 2026
Frosinone
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Como20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genoa12 September 2026
- W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Fiorentina29 August 2026
- L0-1Juventus23 August 2026
What these results say
- Napoli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Napoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Napoli conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Frosinone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Napoli vs Frosinone
- 14 April 2024Napoli 2–2 FrosinoneSerie A
- 19 December 2023Napoli 0–4 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
- 19 August 2023Frosinone 1–3 NapoliSerie A
- 28 April 2019Frosinone 0–2 NapoliSerie A
- 8 December 2018Napoli 4–0 FrosinoneSerie A
Leading scorers: Napoli and Frosinone
Napoli
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo80
- G. Calò51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Napoli beat Frosinone 3–0. The model had made a win for Napoli its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kevin De Bruyne (penalty) 29' for Napoli, Noa Lang 32' for Napoli, Kevin De Bruyne 90+4' for Napoli. On expected goals it finished 3.17–1.03.
How the call on Napoli v Frosinone has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Napoli's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Napoli win43%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Frosinone win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.