10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Inter vs Parma Serie A prediction & result

Milan
Referee: Kevin Bonacina, Italy
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Inter 3-0 Parma.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Inter, 21% draw, 12% Parma — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter99%Draw1%Parma0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Petar Sučić
13'
•Pio Esposito
15'
⚽Hakan Çalhanoğlu (pen)
18'
⚽Marcus Thuramassist: Henrikh Mkhitaryan
31'
🔁Pio Espositoout: Ange-Yoan Bonny
61'
🔁Marcus Thuramout: Lautaro Martínez
61'
🔁Hakan Çalhanoğluout: Aleksandar Stankovic
61'
61'
🔁Nesta Elphegeout: José David Romero
62'
🔁Giovanni Fabbianout: Simone Lontani
62'
🔁Vincent Sierroout: Adrián Bernabé García
🔁Federico Dimarcoout: Luis Henrique
73'
🔁Andy Dioufout: Djed Spence
73'
78'
🔁Franco Carboniout: Sascha Britschgi
84'
🔁El Bilal Toureout: Matija Frigan

Match stats — Inter vs Parma

59%Possession41%
19Shots9
6On target2
3Corners1
2.5xG0.51

Goals against chances

Inter3 from 2.50 xGmore than the chances were worth
Parma0 from 0.51 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Inter 3-5-2
  • 1Josep MartínezG
  • 28B. PavardD
  • 31Y. BisseckD
  • 30Carlos AugustoD
  • 17A. DioufM
  • 8P. SučićM
  • 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
  • 22H. MkhitaryanM
  • 32F. DimarcoM
  • 9M. ThuramF
  • 94F. EspositoF
Substitutes
  • 23N. BarellaM
  • 25M. AkanjiD
  • 95A. BastoniD
  • 14A. BonnyF
  • 46L. BovioD
  • 12R. Di GennaroG
  • 11Luis HenriqueF
  • 10Lautaro MartínezF
  • 49I. ProvedelG
Coach: C. Chivu
Parma 3-4-2-1
  • 40E. CorviG
  • 37M. TroiloD
  • 34Diego CarlosD
  • 29F. CarboniD
  • 15E. Del PratoM
  • 16M. KeitaM
  • 4V. SierroM
  • 14E. ValeriM
  • 80G. FabbianM
  • 19E. TouréM
  • 23N. ElphegeF
Substitutes
  • 27S. BritschgiD
  • 8B. CremaschiM
  • 30G. DaffaraG
  • 7Ousmane DialloF
  • 72D. DrobnicD
  • 20M. FriganF
  • 22S. GhidottiG
  • 47Abdou KonateM
  • 76S. LontaniF
Coach: A. Gilardino

Form going into Inter vs Parma

Inter

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to AS Roma19 September 2026
  • W5-3Udinese14 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Real Madrid8 September 2026
  • W3-2Napoli5 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Cagliari30 August 2026

Parma

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Genoa20 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Como14 September 2026
  • D1-1Monza6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Juventus29 August 2026
  • L0-1Cagliari22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Inter scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Inter conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Inter had three goals or more.
  • Parma conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Parma failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Inter119112813+1528
16Parma11227917-88

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inter vs Parma

  • 3 May 2026Inter 2–0 ParmaSerie A
  • 7 January 2026Parma 0–2 InterSerie A
  • 5 April 2025Parma 2–2 InterSerie A
  • 6 December 2024Inter 3–1 ParmaSerie A
  • 10 January 2023Inter 2–1 ParmaCoppa Italia

The full Inter vs Parma record →

Leading scorers: Inter and Parma

Inter

GoalsAssists

  • M. Thuram62

Parma

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Inter beat Parma 3–0. The model had made a win for Inter its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Petar Sučić 13' for Inter, Hakan Çalhanoğlu (penalty) 18' for Inter, Marcus Thuram 31' for Inter. On expected goals it finished 2.50–0.51.

How the call on Inter v Parma has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 59% / 24% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 67% / 21% / 12%: the biggest move is Inter's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Inter win67%▲ +8
  2. Draw21%▼ −3
  3. Parma win12%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.