Inter
vs
Parma
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Inter 2–0 Parma
The model makes it 59% Inter, 24% draw, 17% Parma — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Inter 2.32, Parma 0.73.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Inter vs Parma
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter at 59% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Inter vs Parma
Inter
- D2-2away to AS Roma19 September 2026
- W5-3Udinese14 September 2026
- W3-2Napoli5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cagliari30 August 2026
- W4-1Monza22 August 2026
Parma
- W2-1Genoa20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Como14 September 2026
- D1-1Monza6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus29 August 2026
- L0-1Cagliari22 August 2026
What these results say
- Inter went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Inter scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Parma conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Parma failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 13 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter vs Parma
- 3 May 2026Inter 2–0 ParmaSerie A
- 7 January 2026Parma 0–2 InterSerie A
- 5 April 2025Parma 2–2 InterSerie A
- 6 December 2024Inter 3–1 ParmaSerie A
- 10 January 2023Inter 2–1 ParmaCoppa Italia
- 8 August 2021Parma 0–2 InterFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Inter and Parma
Inter
- Lautaro Martínez4 goals
- M. Thuram2 goals2 assists
- F. Esposito2 goals1 assists
Parma
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Inter carry a model rating of 7.26 against 6.74 for Parma. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.32 goals for Inter and 0.73 for Parma. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter rate 1.82 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Parma rate 0.70 and 0.92.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Inter against 0.73 for Parma. Inter's attack/defence rating is 1.82/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/0.92 for Parma.