Mirassol vs Botafogo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Mirassol 2-0 Botafogo.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Mirassol, 30% draw, 30% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mirassol at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mirassol vs Botafogo
Line-ups
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 27DenilsonM
- 25Neto MouraM
- 95EdsonM
- 33EduardoM
- 10ChicoM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 9André LuísF
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 17FernandinhoF
- 44GabrielD
- 19Gustavo SilvaM
- 5JapaM
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 7ShaylonM
- 90ThomazellaG
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 2VitinhoD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 33L. MonzónD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 6C. MedinaM
- 75HuguinhoM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 90DaniloF
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 22H. ZiyechM
- 3Arthur ChavesD
- 17WarlesonG
- 77L. VillalbaF
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
- 21MarçalD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 42Kadu SantosD
- 34G. JustinoD
Form going into Mirassol vs Botafogo
Mirassol
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Vitoria13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Coritiba6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Flamengo2 September 2026
- D1-1Palmeiras30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Santos23 August 2026
Botafogo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1RB Bragantino12 September 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Flamengo30 August 2026
- L2-3Atletico Paranaense24 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria16 August 2026
What these results say
- Mirassol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 37 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Botafogo
- 1 April 2026Botafogo 3–2 MirassolSerie A
- 1 November 2025Mirassol 0–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 17 September 2025Botafogo 3–3 MirassolSerie A
Leading scorers: Mirassol and Botafogo
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mirassol beat Botafogo 2–0. The model had made a win for Mirassol its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve 16' for Mirassol, Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve 45+2' for Mirassol.
How the call on Mirassol v Botafogo has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 40% / 30% / 30%: the biggest move is Botafogo's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Mirassol win40%▲ +1
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Botafogo win30%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Mirassol's most recent league matches and Botafogo's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.