Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Atletico Mineiro, 28% draw, 28% Chapecoense — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Mineiro at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense
Line-ups
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 40VitãoD
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 36K. PasciniD
- 8MayconM
- 5AlexsanderM
- 28T. CuelloM
- 7FredM
- 11BernardM
- 27A. MindaF
- 15K. CastañoM
- 9M. CassierraF
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 21A. FrancoM
- 6Renan LodiD
- 92DuduF
- 31RobertG
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 25T. PérezM
- 98AndersonG
- 23DuduD
- 21Kauan Faria GomesD
- 3DomaD
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 27CamiloM
- 88Yago FelipeM
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 31GarcezM
- 9Tulio Eduardo Silva De OliveiraF
- 70RubensM
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 12FernandoD
- 19David AntunesM
- 80Miguel CarvalhoM
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 77D. BorreroF
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 30Matheus AurélioG
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense
Atletico Mineiro
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Fluminense12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sao Paulo5 September 2026
- W2-1Vitoria29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Internacional22 August 2026
- W3-0Gremio16 August 2026
Chapecoense
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Internacional12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Gremio30 August 2026
- W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
- D3-3Bahia16 August 2026
What these results say
- Chapecoense scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chapecoense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chapecoense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 50 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 32 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 32 | 66 | -34 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Chapecoense
- 2 April 2026Chapecoense 0–4 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 6 October 2021Chapecoense 2–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 21 June 2021Atletico Mineiro 1–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 30 October 2019Atletico Mineiro 0–2 ChapecoenseSerie A
- 14 July 2019Chapecoense 1–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
The result against the call
Atletico Mineiro and Chapecoense drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Mineiro at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira 44' for Chapecoense, Mateo Cassierra 69' for Atletico Mineiro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.