19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athletic Premier Division prediction & result

Showgrounds, Sligo
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Sligo Rovers 0-1 St Patrick's Athletic.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Sligo Rovers, 29% draw, 45% St Patrick's Athletic — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts St Patrick's Athletic at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sligo Rovers0%Draw3%St Patrick's Athletic97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

A. Gabbidon
48'
59'
🔁Anto Breslinout: Jason McClelland
59'
🔁Ryan Edmondsonout: Anthony Olusanya
Carl McHugh
62'
🔁James McManusout: Kaiyne Woolery
62'
65'
Jamie Lennon
66'
🔁Barry Baggleyout: Christopher Forrester
🔁Cian Kavanaghout: Luke Pearce
71'
74'
⚽Aidan Keena
76'
🔁Ryan Sheridanout: Darragh Nugent
77'
🔁Sean Hoareout: Sean mchale
🔁Jack Shorrockout: Kevin Zefi
79'
🔁sean stewartout: kyle mcdonagh
80'
🔁Carl McHughout: O.Denham
80'
Kaiyne Woolery
90+4'

Match stats — Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athletic

42%Possession58%
5Shots17
3On target7
4Corners6

Line-ups

Sligo Rovers 4-2-3-1
  • 1Liam John HughesG
  • 51Aidan GabbidonD
  • 52G. McElroyD
  • 16C. McHughD
  • 3Sean StewartD
  • 6L. YoungM
  • 50S. MaughanM
  • 14J. McManusM
  • 10A. MeekisonM
  • 7J. ShorrockM
  • 11C. KavanaghF
Substitutes
  • 60R. BrushG
  • 15O. DenhamD
  • 9L. PearceF
  • 41K. WooleryF
  • 77Kevin ZefiF
  • 24J. O'DonnellF
  • 49Jamie O'MalleyD
  • 61Conor CannonD
Coach: D. Purse
St Patrick's Athletic 3-1-4-2
  • 94J. AnangG
  • 4J. RedmondD
  • 2S. HoareD
  • 24L. TurnerD
  • 6J. LennonM
  • 7Z. ElbouzediM
  • 48R. SheridanM
  • 19B. BaggleyM
  • 3A. BreslinM
  • 27R. EdmondsonF
  • 9A. KeenaF
Substitutes
  • 1D. RogersG
  • 17R. PalmerM
  • 21A. OlusanyaF
  • 16D. NugentM
  • 33S. McHaleD
  • 11J. McClellandF
  • 8C. ForresterM
  • 23J. BrownD
  • 35S. RooneyF
Coach: S. Kenny

Form going into Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athletic

Sligo Rovers

Premier Division

  • L1-3Galway United14 September 2026

St Patrick's Athletic

Premier Division

  • W4-0away to Dundalk14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sligo Rovers3559212664-3824
3St Patrick's Athletic3517995328+2560

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athletic

  • 19 June 2026St Patrick's Athletic 2–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 4 May 2026Sligo Rovers 1–1 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
  • 3 April 2026St Patrick's Athletic 4–1 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 27 September 2025Sligo Rovers 1–0 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division
  • 10 August 2025St Patrick's Athletic 3–0 Sligo RoversPremier Division
  • 30 May 2025Sligo Rovers 0–1 St Patrick's AthleticPremier Division

Leading scorers: Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athletic

Sligo Rovers

GoalsAssists

  • C. Kavanagh62

St Patrick's Athletic

GoalsAssists

  • A. Keena104
  • R. Edmondson101
  • K. Leavy63

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St Patrick's Athletic won 1–0 at Sligo Rovers. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for St Patrick's Athletic at 45%. The goal: Aidan Keena 74' for St Patrick's Athletic.

How the call on Sligo Rovers v St Patrick's Athletic has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 26% / 29% / 45%: the biggest move is Sligo Rovers's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Sligo Rovers win26%▼ −7
  2. Draw29%=
  3. St Patrick's Athletic win45%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.