Gimnasia La Plata
vs
Banfield
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Gimnasia La Plata 2–1 Banfield
The model makes it 47% Gimnasia La Plata, 27% draw, 26% Banfield — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Gimnasia La Plata 1.94, Banfield 1.16.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gimnasia La Plata vs Banfield
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Gimnasia La Plata wins, grey are draws, red are Banfield wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia La Plata at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs Banfield
Gimnasia La Plata
- D1-1away to Argentinos Juniors13 September 2026
- W2-1Tigre5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Rosario Central29 August 2026
- L2-3Gimnasia Mendoza22 August 2026
- L0-4away to Estudiantes La Plata15 August 2026
Banfield
- D1-1Barracas Central14 September 2026
- L1-3away to Aldosivi5 September 2026
- L2-3River Plate30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Newell's Old Boys23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Racing Club14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs Banfield
- 11 March 2026Banfield 1–2 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 May 2024Gimnasia La Plata 3–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 April 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–2 BanfieldCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 25 November 2023Banfield 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 12 February 2023Banfield 0–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 October 2022Banfield 0–2 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and Banfield
Gimnasia La Plata
- M. Torres8 goals1 assists
Banfield
- M. Méndez6 goals3 assists
- Tiziano Perrota6 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gimnasia La Plata carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.49 for Banfield. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Gimnasia La Plata and 1.16 for Banfield. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimnasia La Plata rate 0.74 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Banfield rate 0.77 and 1.61.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia La Plata the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Gimnasia La Plata against 1.16 for Banfield. Gimnasia La Plata's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.61 for Banfield.