Gimnasia La Plata vs Banfield Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Gimnasia La Plata 2-2 Banfield.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Gimnasia La Plata, 27% draw, 26% Banfield — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia La Plata at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gimnasia La Plata vs Banfield
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23N. InsfranG
- 31B. Barros SchelottoD
- 13German ContiD
- 21E. MartinezD
- 24P. Silva TorrejonD
- 18M. SeoaneM
- 10N. SchelottoM
- 9M. ZalazarM
- 8N. FernandezM
- 17L. JansonM
- 29A. AuzmendiF
- 27J. KadijevicG
- 22M. MellusoD
- 4R. GiampaoliD
- 36L. LamellaD
- 16A. MaxM
- 20J. PerezM
- 25A. SteimbachM
- 33P. AguiarM
- 32M. TorresF
- 50D. RodriguezG
- 13B. OviedoD
- 2S. DanieleD
- 6N. MerianoD
- 12M. LopezM
- 5S. EsquivelM
- 11F. AlvarezM
- 27I. AbrahamM
- 10L. GomezF
- 22A. MachadoF
- 9A. BalboaF
- 25G. SantilliG
- 3N. PazD
- 19L. CanoD
- 37R. MalancaD
- 21L. VillegasM
- 24S. LopezM
- 35N. PaisM
- 30F. AnselmoF
- 40D. ZalazarF
Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs Banfield
Gimnasia La Plata
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Argentinos Juniors13 September 2026
- W2-1Tigre5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Rosario Central29 August 2026
- L2-3Gimnasia Mendoza22 August 2026
- L0-4away to Estudiantes La Plata15 August 2026
Banfield
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Barracas Central14 September 2026
- L1-3away to Aldosivi5 September 2026
- L2-3River Plate30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Newell's Old Boys23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Racing Club14 August 2026
What these results say
- Gimnasia La Plata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gimnasia La Plata had three goals or more.
- Banfield scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Banfield failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Banfield conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gimnasia La Plata | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 25 |
| 11 | Banfield | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs Banfield
- 11 March 2026Banfield 1–2 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 May 2024Gimnasia La Plata 3–0 BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
- 14 April 2024Gimnasia La Plata 1–2 BanfieldCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 25 November 2023Banfield 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 12 February 2023Banfield 0–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 October 2022Banfield 0–2 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and Banfield
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres92
- A. Auzmendi73
Banfield
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gimnasia La Plata and Banfield drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Gimnasia La Plata at 47% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Auzmendi 20' for Gimnasia La Plata, L. Gomez 38' for Banfield, P. Silva Torrejon 62' for Gimnasia La Plata, D. Zalazar 90' for Banfield. On expected goals it finished 3.54–0.44.
How the call on Gimnasia La Plata v Banfield has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Gimnasia La Plata's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Gimnasia La Plata win47%▼ −3
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Banfield win26%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.