Baltika
vs
Akhmat
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Baltika 1–0 Akhmat
The model makes it 45% Baltika, 30% draw, 25% Akhmat — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Baltika 1.37, Akhmat 0.89.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Baltika's rating is built from 44 Russian Premier League matches and Akhmat's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.
Key facts
- Baltika are 9th on 17 points from 14 games; Akhmat are 12th on 14 points from 14 games — Premier League.
- Baltika have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Dinamo Makhachkala.
- Akhmat have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Rodina Moskva.
- Last 6 meetings: Baltika 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 11 October 2026, ended Akhmat 0–0 Baltika.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Baltika vs Akhmat
Has the model earned this number?
Baltika at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Baltika vs Akhmat
Baltika
Premier League
- L0-1Dinamo Makhachkala8 November 2026
- W2-1Akron1 November 2026
- D1-1away to FC Krasnodar24 October 2026
- D0-0FC Rostov18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Akhmat11 October 2026
Akhmat
Premier League
- W1-0Rodina Moskva7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Dynamo31 October 2026
- L0-1FC Orenburg23 October 2026
- L2-3away to Zenit18 October 2026
- D0-0Baltika11 October 2026
What these results say
- Baltika failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Baltika had two goals or fewer.
- Akhmat failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Akhmat had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Baltika | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 17 |
| 12 | Akhmat | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Baltika
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 8% today
Akhmat
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 33% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Baltika vs Akhmat
- 11 October 2026Akhmat 0–0 BaltikaPremier League
- 23 April 2026Akhmat 1–1 BaltikaPremier League
- 18 February 2026Baltika 2–2 AkhmatFriendlies Clubs
- 2 November 2025Baltika 2–0 AkhmatPremier League
- 13 April 2024Akhmat Grozny 1–7 BaltikaPremier League
- 31 October 2023Baltika 4–1 Akhmat GroznyCup
Leading scorers: Baltika and Akhmat
Baltika
GoalsAssists
- B. Gil51
Akhmat
GoalsAssists
- L. Sadulaev33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Baltika the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Baltika against 0.89 for Akhmat. Baltika's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.81 for Akhmat.
How the model reaches 45% for Baltika to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Baltika to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Baltika's ratings add 2 points and Akhmat's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Baltika's ratings42%+2
- Akhmat's ratings45%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Baltika at home · Akhmat away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Baltika 14, Akhmat 14.
Baltika score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Akhmat have let in 4 there.
Akhmat score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Baltika have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Baltika
- at Zenit5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- vs Rodina Moskva27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 54%
- at FC Rostov6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs FC Krasnodar13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Akhmat
- vs Lokomotiv5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- vs Akron27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- vs Rubin6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Spartak Moscow13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 18%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.