Semi-finals · 28 November 2026, 12:00 UTC

Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK Allsvenskan prediction

Paskbergsvallen, Varberg

Our model says: Varbergs BoIS FC 1–0 Ostersunds FK

The model makes it 47% Varbergs BoIS FC, 28% draw, 25% Ostersunds FK — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.58, Ostersunds FK 1.03.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to Varbergs BoIS FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Varbergs BoIS FC's rating is built from its last 6 matches; Ostersunds FK's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.

Key facts

  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended Ostersunds FK 1–1 Varbergs BoIS FC.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK

52%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Varbergs BoIS FC win Draw Ostersunds FK win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Varbergs BoIS FC first; the other scorelines share the remaining 37%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Varbergs BoIS FC at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Head-to-head: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Ostersunds FK

  • 10 October 2026Ostersunds FK 1–1 Varbergs BoIS FCSuperettan
  • 6 April 2026Varbergs BoIS FC 1–2 Ostersunds FKSuperettan
  • 24 August 2025Varbergs BoIS FC 1–1 Ostersunds FKSuperettan
  • 11 May 2025Ostersunds FK 0–1 Varbergs BoIS FCSuperettan
  • 27 July 2024Ostersunds FK 2–1 Varbergs BoIS FCSuperettan
  • 13 April 2024Varbergs BoIS FC 2–0 Ostersunds FKSuperettan
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Varbergs BoIS FC Ostersunds FK
0.61 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
1.53 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.61
1.58 Model expected goals (this match) 1.03

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Varbergs BoIS FC the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.03 for Ostersunds FK. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.61 for Ostersunds FK.

How the model reaches 47% for Varbergs BoIS FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Varbergs BoIS FC to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Varbergs BoIS FC's ratings add 4 points and Ostersunds FK's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage41%+5
  3. Both sides at this match's level39%−2
  4. Varbergs BoIS FC's ratings43%+4
  5. Ostersunds FK's ratings47%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.