Philadelphia Union
vs
New England Revolution
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Philadelphia Union 2–1 New England Revolution
The model makes it 52% Philadelphia Union, 24% draw, 24% New England Revolution — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Philadelphia Union 2.00, New England Revolution 1.20.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Philadelphia Union: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Philadelphia Union's rating is built from 71 MLS matches and New England Revolution's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,572 matches.
Key facts
- Philadelphia Union are 6th on 50 points from 34 games; New England Revolution are 3rd on 58 points from 34 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Philadelphia Union have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Toronto FC.
- New England Revolution have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Orlando City SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Philadelphia Union 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 October 2026, ended Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
Has the model earned this number?
Philadelphia Union at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer
- W4-1Toronto FC7 November 2026
- L0-1away to FC Cincinnati31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Nashville SC29 October 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution24 October 2026
- D2-2Charlotte17 October 2026
New England Revolution
Major League Soccer
- L0-1away to Orlando City SC7 November 2026
- L1-2Inter Miami2 November 2026
- W3-2New York Red Bulls28 October 2026
- W2-1away to Philadelphia Union24 October 2026
- W1-0Chicago Fire17 October 2026
What these results say
- Philadelphia Union failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- New England Revolution scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- New England Revolution conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 66 | 52 | +14 | 50 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 34 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 47 | +8 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
- 24 October 2026Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 9 May 2026New England Revolution 2–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 20 September 2025Philadelphia Union 1–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025New England Revolution 0–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2024Philadelphia Union 5–1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2024New England Revolution 0–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski192
New England Revolution
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 55 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Philadelphia Union against 1.20 for New England Revolution. Philadelphia Union's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.25 for New England Revolution.
How the model reaches 52% for Philadelphia Union to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Philadelphia Union to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Philadelphia Union's ratings add 5 points and New England Revolution's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Philadelphia Union's ratings48%+5
- New England Revolution's ratings52%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Philadelphia Union at home · New England Revolution away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Philadelphia Union 34, New England Revolution 34.
Philadelphia Union score most often in the 61–75 minute window (18 goals); New England Revolution have let in 11 there.
New England Revolution score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Philadelphia Union have let in 12 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.