Degerfors IF
vs
Orgryte IS
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Degerfors IF 1–2 Orgryte IS
The model makes it 35% Degerfors IF, 27% draw, 38% Orgryte IS — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Degerfors IF 1.48, Orgryte IS 1.57.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Degerfors IF and Orgryte IS are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Degerfors IF's rating is built from 58 Allsvenskan matches and Orgryte IS's from 30, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.
Key facts
- Degerfors IF are 14th on 20 points from 28 games; Orgryte IS are 15th on 20 points from 28 games — Allsvenskan.
- Degerfors IF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Gais.
- Orgryte IS are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Vasteras SK FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Degerfors IF 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 April 2026, ended Orgryte IS 1–1 Degerfors IF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS
Has the model earned this number?
Orgryte IS at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS
Degerfors IF
Allsvenskan
- L1-2Gais7 November 2026
- L1-2away to Djurgardens IF1 November 2026
- L0-3Vasteras SK FK28 October 2026
- L0-4away to BK Hacken24 October 2026
- L1-2Kalmar FF19 October 2026
Orgryte IS
Allsvenskan
- D0-0Vasteras SK FK7 November 2026
- L1-2away to IF Elfsborg1 November 2026
- L1-2Mjallby AIF29 October 2026
- D2-2away to Djurgardens IF24 October 2026
- W4-2Gais18 October 2026
What these results say
- Degerfors IF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Degerfors IF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Degerfors IF had three goals or more.
- Orgryte IS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 48 | -25 | 20 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 33 | 60 | -27 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS
- 27 April 2026Orgryte IS 1–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 26 August 2024Orgryte IS 1–3 Degerfors IFSuperettan
- 18 May 2024Degerfors IF 4–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
- 18 February 2024Degerfors IF 5–0 Orgryte ISSvenska Cupen
- 21 October 2020Degerfors IF 2–0 Orgryte ISSuperettan
- 24 July 2020Orgryte IS 1–1 Degerfors IFSuperettan
Leading scorers: Degerfors IF and Orgryte IS
Degerfors IF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Orgryte IS
GoalsAssists
- N. Christoffersson81
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Degerfors IF (14th, with Orgryte IS 15th), while our numbers lean to Orgryte IS. Orgryte IS rate 0.61 in attack and 2.05 in defence, Degerfors IF 0.45 and 1.88 (lower is better in defence), so Orgryte IS have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orgryte IS the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Degerfors IF against 1.57 for Orgryte IS. Degerfors IF's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/2.05 for Orgryte IS.
How the model reaches 38% for Orgryte IS to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Orgryte IS to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Degerfors IF's ratings add 2 points and Orgryte IS's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Both sides at this match's level33%+1
- Degerfors IF's ratings35%+2
- Orgryte IS's ratings38%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Degerfors IF at home · Orgryte IS away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Degerfors IF 28, Orgryte IS 28.
Degerfors IF score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Orgryte IS have let in 10 there.
Orgryte IS score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Degerfors IF have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.