Valladolid
vs
Oviedo
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Valladolid 0-3 Oviedo.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Valladolid, 29% draw, 39% Oviedo — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Valladolid 1.23, Oviedo 1.52.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Valladolid vs Oviedo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oviedo at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Valladolid vs Oviedo
Valladolid
- W1-0FC Andorra5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cadiz30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Eibar23 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mallorca15 August 2026
Oviedo
- D0-0Burgos6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Albacete29 August 2026
- L0-1Leganes22 August 2026
- D0-0Granada CF15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Valladolid | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
| 7 | Oviedo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valladolid vs Oviedo
- 23 February 2024Valladolid 3–0 OviedoSegunda División
- 24 September 2023Oviedo 0–1 ValladolidSegunda División
- 13 March 2022Oviedo 3–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 12 December 2021Valladolid 2–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 20 April 2018Oviedo 1–2 ValladolidSegunda División
- 18 November 2017Valladolid 3–1 OviedoSegunda División
Leading scorers: Valladolid and Oviedo
Valladolid
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Oviedo
- Pablo Sáenz2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Valladolid carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.72 for Oviedo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Valladolid and 1.52 for Oviedo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valladolid rate 0.67 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oviedo rate 0.87 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oviedo the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Valladolid against 1.52 for Oviedo. Valladolid's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.13 for Oviedo.