Sporting Gijon
vs
Eldense
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Gijon 0-1 Eldense.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Sporting Gijon, 30% draw, 29% Eldense — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sporting Gijon 1.45, Eldense 1.05.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Sporting Gijon vs Eldense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Gijon at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Eldense
Sporting Gijon
- L0-2Girona5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tenerife28 August 2026
- W1-0Burgos23 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell17 August 2026
Eldense
- D0-0Mallorca5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Leganes29 August 2026
- D2-2Cadiz22 August 2026
- L0-3away to Almeria17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Gijon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Eldense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Eldense
- 13 April 2025Eldense 1–2 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 24 August 2024Sporting Gijon 0–0 EldenseSegunda División
- 2 June 2024Eldense 0–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 27 November 2023Sporting Gijon 2–0 EldenseSegunda División
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sporting Gijon carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.49 for Eldense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Sporting Gijon and 1.05 for Eldense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Gijon rate 0.65 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eldense rate 0.67 and 1.37.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Gijon the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sporting Gijon against 1.05 for Eldense. Sporting Gijon's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.37 for Eldense.