Sporting Gijon vs Eldense Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Gijon 0-1 Eldense.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Sporting Gijon, 29% draw, 26% Eldense — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Gijon at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Gijon vs Eldense
Line-ups
- 1Rubén YáñezG
- 2Guille RosasD
- 24Aimar DuñabeitiaD
- 15Pablo VázquezD
- 44Andrés CuencaD
- 10César GelabertM
- 6Nacho MartínM
- 14Álex CorrederaM
- 20N. IosifovM
- 16A. SarcoF
- 19J. OteroF
- 17Antonio CasasF
- 3Pablo GarcíaD
- 4E. GularteD
- 21M. LoumM
- 26Iker MartínezD
- 27Enol PrendesF
- 36B. RubioM
- 23Jorge SáenzD
- 5Diego SánchezD
- 1Ramón VilaG
- 19A. IbarrondoD
- 5Alex SerradellD
- 4F. SmandD
- 21D. RuizD
- 14J. SmithM
- 15Carlos GuiraoM
- 10FidelM
- 12Roberto LópezM
- 33Aingeru OlabarrietaM
- 11Manu NietoF
- 22J. YandaD
- 20Waldo RubioF
- 2Iker RecioD
- 7Jorge RastrojoF
- 29Dinis RodriguesF
- 13JuanpaG
- 24Javi MartínezM
- 18Guillermo MachoM
- 3Juan LariosD
Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Eldense
Sporting Gijon
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Girona5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tenerife28 August 2026
- W1-0Burgos23 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell17 August 2026
Eldense
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Mallorca5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Leganes29 August 2026
- D2-2Cadiz22 August 2026
- L0-3away to Almeria17 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Sporting Gijon had two goals or fewer.
- Sporting Gijon kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Eldense did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Eldense failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Eldense conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sporting Gijon | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 19 |
| 13 | Eldense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Eldense
- 13 April 2025Eldense 1–2 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 24 August 2024Sporting Gijon 0–0 EldenseSegunda División
- 2 June 2024Eldense 0–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 27 November 2023Sporting Gijon 2–0 EldenseSegunda División
The result against the call
Eldense won 1–0 at Sporting Gijon. The model had leaned towards a win for Sporting Gijon at 45% and given a win for Eldense 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Javi Martínez 76' for Eldense.