Mallorca
vs
Sabadell
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Mallorca 2-0 Sabadell.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Mallorca, 27% draw, 22% Sabadell — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Mallorca 1.90, Sabadell 0.88.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Mallorca vs Sabadell
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mallorca at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mallorca vs Sabadell
Mallorca
- D0-0away to Eldense5 September 2026
- W3-0AD Ceuta FC30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Granada CF24 August 2026
- W2-0Valladolid15 August 2026
Sabadell
- W3-2Cordoba7 September 2026
- W1-0Almeria29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Castellón23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sporting Gijon17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mallorca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 11 | Sabadell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mallorca vs Sabadell
- 26 April 2021Sabadell 1–0 MallorcaSegunda División
- 27 September 2020Mallorca 1–0 SabadellSegunda División
Leading scorers: Mallorca and Sabadell
Mallorca
- Fuentes3 goals
- Álex Sala1 goals2 assists
Sabadell
- N. Gioacchini3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Mallorca carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.49 for Sabadell. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Mallorca and 0.88 for Sabadell. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mallorca rate 0.88 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sabadell rate 0.65 and 1.33.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mallorca the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.9 expected goals for Mallorca against 0.88 for Sabadell. Mallorca's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.33 for Sabadell.