Celta Vigo vs Malaga La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Celta Vigo 1-1 Malaga.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Celta Vigo, 31% draw, 32% Malaga — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta Vigo at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Line-ups
- 13I. RaduG
- 21S. CáceresD
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 8Miguel RománM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 5Sergio CarreiraM
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezF
- 25Iván VillarG
- 19W. SwedbergM
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 22Javi GalánD
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 24C. DriouechF
- 30H. BurcioM
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 31RafitaD
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 12José SalinasD
- 10David LarrubiaM
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 18Pablo MartínezM
- 11Joaquín MuñozM
- 22Dani LorenzoF
- 9ChupeF
- 25Juan BerrocalD
- 2J. CajusteM
- 19Juan CruzM
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 32J. FernandezF
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
- 3PugaD
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Celta Vigo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
- D0-0away to Valencia22 August 2026
Malaga
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Levante6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Real Madrid30 August 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026
What these results say
- Celta Vigo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Celta Vigo had two goals or fewer.
- Malaga did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Malaga failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Malaga conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Malaga
- 18 March 2018Celta Vigo 0–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 29 October 2017Malaga 2–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 7 May 2017Malaga 3–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 8 January 2017Celta Vigo 3–1 MalagaLa Liga
- 8 May 2016Celta Vigo 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Malaga
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Celta Vigo and Malaga drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Celta Vigo at 37% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ferran Jutglà 41' for Celta Vigo, Adrian Nino 83' for Malaga.
How the call on Celta Vigo v Malaga has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 37% / 31% / 32%: the biggest move is Celta Vigo's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Celta Vigo win37%▼ −2
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Malaga win32%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.