Celta Vigo
vs
Malaga
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Celta Vigo 1-1 Malaga.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Celta Vigo, 31% draw, 32% Malaga — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.24, Malaga 1.09.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta Vigo at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Line-ups
- 13I. RaduG
- 21S. CáceresD
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 8Miguel RománM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 5Sergio CarreiraM
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezF
- 25Iván VillarG
- 19W. SwedbergM
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 22Javi GalánD
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 24C. DriouechF
- 30H. BurcioM
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 31RafitaD
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 12José SalinasD
- 10David LarrubiaM
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 18Pablo MartínezM
- 11Joaquín MuñozM
- 22Dani LorenzoF
- 9ChupeF
- 25Juan BerrocalD
- 2J. CajusteM
- 19Juan CruzM
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 32J. FernandezF
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
- 3PugaD
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Celta Vigo
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
Malaga
- D0-0Levante6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Real Madrid30 August 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Celta Vigo | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Malaga
- 13 September 2026Celta Vigo 1–1 MalagaLa Liga
- 18 March 2018Celta Vigo 0–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 29 October 2017Malaga 2–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 7 May 2017Malaga 3–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 8 January 2017Celta Vigo 3–1 MalagaLa Liga
- 8 May 2016Celta Vigo 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.24 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.09 for Malaga; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ferran Jutglà 41' (Celta Vigo), Adrian Nino 83' (Malaga).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celta Vigo the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Celta Vigo against 1.09 for Malaga. Celta Vigo's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/0.91 for Malaga.