Getafe
vs
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Getafe 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Getafe, 28% draw, 29% Deportivo La Coruna — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Getafe 1.69, Deportivo La Coruna 1.18.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Getafe at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna
Line-ups
- 13David SoriaG
- 15S. BoselliD
- 8N. GudeljD
- 2D. DakonamD
- 22J. MojicaD
- 11Ramón TerratsM
- 6Mario MartínM
- 23O. MangalaM
- 10M. SatrianoM
- 19E. ÜnalF
- 20Iván AzónF
- 3DavinchiD
- 26J. ValouD
- 4S. SazonovD
- 9Borja MayoralF
- 30Óscar LópezM
- 1J. LetáčekG
- 32JoseluF
- 27Ebrahima DrammehF
- 35Diego FerrerG
- 13Leo RománG
- 23Ximo NavarroD
- 4L. NoubiD
- 20J. GiménezD
- 12G. QuagliataD
- 19Luismi CruzM
- 16L. AmatucciM
- 6Marc CasadóM
- 21Mario SorianoM
- 32B. NsongoF
- 7P. AubameyangF
- 2Adrià AltiD
- 17AngeliñoD
- 24Adama TraoréF
- 14Riki RodríguezM
- 11David MellaF
- 15Miguel LoureiroD
- 10PekeF
- 25Álvaro FernándezG
- 22B. EdeD
Form going into Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna
Getafe
- D1-1Celta Vigo7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Osasuna31 August 2026
- W1-0Racing Santander23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Alaves15 August 2026
Deportivo La Coruna
- W3-2away to Villarreal5 September 2026
- W3-1Valencia30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Malaga24 August 2026
- D1-1Elche17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Getafe | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruna | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna
- 13 September 2026Getafe 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 28 February 2018Getafe 3–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 30 September 2017Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 1 May 2016Deportivo La Coruna 0–2 GetafeLa Liga
- 30 December 2015Getafe 0–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 5 April 2015Getafe 2–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Getafe and Deportivo La Coruna
Getafe
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Deportivo La Coruna
- P. Aubameyang5 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.69 goals for Getafe and 1.18 for Deportivo La Coruna; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ramón Terrats 66' (Getafe), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 78' (Deportivo La Coruna).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Getafe the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Getafe against 1.18 for Deportivo La Coruna. Getafe's attack/defence rating is 0.8/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.3 for Deportivo La Coruna.