Tenerife
vs
Leganes
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Tenerife 2-0 Leganes.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Tenerife, 28% draw, 28% Leganes — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Tenerife 1.74, Leganes 1.11.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Tenerife vs Leganes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tenerife at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tenerife vs Leganes
Tenerife
- D1-1away to Real Sociedad II5 September 2026
- L0-1Sporting Gijon28 August 2026
- W1-0Almeria23 August 2026
- W3-1away to Eibar16 August 2026
Leganes
- D0-0away to Las Palmas4 September 2026
- W1-0Eldense29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Oviedo22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Girona16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tenerife | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
| 12 | Leganes | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tenerife vs Leganes
- 8 August 2026Leganes 0–0 TenerifeFriendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2024Tenerife 0–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 20 December 2023Leganes 1–1 TenerifeSegunda División
- 29 April 2023Tenerife 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 23 October 2022Leganes 2–1 TenerifeSegunda División
- 6 February 2022Tenerife 0–0 LeganesSegunda División
Leading scorers: Tenerife and Leganes
Tenerife
- Enric Gallego4 goals
Leganes
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tenerife carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.55 for Leganes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Tenerife and 1.11 for Leganes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tenerife rate 0.84 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leganes rate 0.69 and 1.27.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tenerife the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Tenerife against 1.11 for Leganes. Tenerife's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.27 for Leganes.