Valerenga vs Ham-Kam Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Valerenga 0-3 Ham-Kam.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Valerenga, 18% draw, 21% Ham-Kam — fair odds of 1.64, 5.56 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Valerenga at 61% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valerenga vs Ham-Kam
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Oscar HedvallG
- 55Sebastian JarlD
- 4Aaron Kiil OlsenD
- 5Kevin TshiembeD
- 24Petter StrandD
- 8Henrik BjørdalM
- 29Ambina Fidèle BriceM
- 10Carl LangeM
- 77Lucas HarenM
- 26Filip ThorvaldsenF
- 17Mathias GrundetjernF
- 7Mohamed OfkirM
- 28Magnus WestergaardM
- 9Gabriel RajkovicF
- 3Hakon SjatilD
- 15Odin Thiago HolmM
- 30Alexander Svensen OrdalG
- 6Vegar Eggen HedenstadD
- 19Promise MeligaF
- 90Ole Christian SaeterF
- 12Marcus SandbergG
- 26Patrick MetcalfeD
- 2Martin GjoneD
- 4Halvor Rodolen OpsahlD
- 3Ethan Amundsen-DayD
- 5Anton EkerothD
- 17Aksel Baran PoturM
- 14Luc MaresM
- 8Markus JohnsgardM
- 28David BenjaminF
- 29Blerton IsufiF
- 23Fredrik SjolstadD
- 19Henrik UdahlF
- 16Anders TrondsenM
- 22Snorre Strand NilsenD
- 6William Osnes-RingenM
- 13Sander ØstraatG
- 7Viðar Ari JónssonM
- 24Danilo Al-SaedF
- 20Julian Bakkeli GonstadF
Form going into Valerenga vs Ham-Kam
Valerenga
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Brann26 July 2026
Ham-Kam
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF26 July 2026
- L0-3away to Bodo/Glimt22 July 2026
- L1-4Tromso18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Valerenga | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 29 |
| 12 | Ham-Kam | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Ham-Kam
- 8 May 2026Ham-Kam 1–0 ValerengaEliteserien
- 19 October 2025Ham-Kam 2–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 16 May 2025Valerenga 1–1 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 8 May 2024Valerenga 2–2 Ham-KamNM Cupen
- 26 November 2023Ham-Kam 0–2 ValerengaEliteserien
- 16 May 2023Valerenga 3–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
Leading scorers: Valerenga and Ham-Kam
Valerenga
GoalsAssists
- L. Haren112
Ham-Kam
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ham-Kam won 3–0 at Valerenga. The model had leaned towards a win for Valerenga at 61% and given a win for Ham-Kam 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Aksel Baran Potur 45+3' for Ham-Kam, Martin Gjone 68' for Ham-Kam, Patrick Metcalfe 83' for Ham-Kam. Sent off: Henrik Bjørdal (Valerenga) 15'. On expected goals it finished 0.64–1.40.