Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Fredrikstad 1-0 Sandefjord.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Fredrikstad, 25% draw, 26% Sandefjord — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fredrikstad at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77Martin BorsheimG
- 28Solomon OwusuD
- 4Fredrik HolméD
- 12Ulrik FredriksenD
- 19Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-AlemD
- 16Daniel EidM
- 14Max NilssonM
- 20Oskar ØhlenschlaegerM
- 7Benjamin FaraasF
- 23Henrik Langaas SkogvoldF
- 9Salim LaghzaouiF
- 38Isak Helstad AmundsenD
- 5Simen RafnD
- 29Gabriel WessehM
- 24Leonard OwusuM
- 21Jakub JezierskiM
- 1Oystein OvretveitG
- 3Aleksander AndresenD
- 6Samuel Leach HolmM
- 10Johannes NúñezF
- 30Elias HadayaG
- 4Fredrik Carson PedersenD
- 13Rasmus HoltenD
- 44Xander LambrixD
- 3Vetle Walle EgeliD
- 6Sander Risan MörkM
- 7Evangelos PatoulidisM
- 14Edvard PettersenM
- 20Marcus MelchiorM
- 19Bendik BerntsenM
- 24Sebastian Holm MathisenF
- 37Jakob VesterM
- 27Jakob Maslo DunsbyF
- 32Daniel SkaarudF
- 17Foster ApetorgborF
- 16Hakon KrogelienD
- 1Alf GrønnebergG
- 2Martin HellanD
- 31Henrik SkrettebergD
- 21Jakob SwiftM
Form going into Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord
Fredrikstad
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Rosenborg27 July 2026
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt17 July 2026
Sandefjord
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Bodo/Glimt26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Viking18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord
- 25 May 2026Sandefjord 1–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 26 October 2025Sandefjord 0–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 21 April 2025Fredrikstad 3–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 15 February 2025Sandefjord 2–2 FredrikstadFriendlies Clubs
- 1 December 2024Sandefjord 0–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
The result against the call
Fredrikstad beat Sandefjord 1–0. The model had made a win for Fredrikstad its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: F. Holme 39' for Fredrikstad. On expected goals it finished 1.45–0.95.