Aalesund vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Aalesund 2-6 Tromso.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Aalesund, 23% draw, 37% Tromso — fair odds of 2.50, 4.35 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aalesund at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aalesund vs Tromso
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. PodlechG
- 2M. AndresenD
- 4S. HaramD
- 22E. EngqvistD
- 3O. GudmundssonD
- 14U. CharlesD
- 6H. Hammer
- 18E. HagenM
- 8H. MellandM
- 39K. LonebuF
- 15E. OsenbrochF
- 26T. LarsenG
- 10M. Kristensen
- 45P. AuklandD
- 11D. JohannssonM
- 25U. Syversen
- 20I. DjantouF
- 7K. NessoM
- 16J. Orsahl
- 17E. MyrlidF
- 1J. HaugaardG
- 17I. DahlqvistD
- 30I. VadebuD
- 4V. SkjaervikD
- 3M. TonnessenD
- 29A. Thongla-Iad WarnerydD
- 5D. EdvardssonM
- 11R. JenssenM
- 7L. O. LarsenM
- 22H. LarsenF
- 10T. NyhammerF
- 12O. LauvliG
- 25C. OyvannD
- 9D. BrautF
- 27M. MikkelsenM
- 8J. GrundtM
- 37S. InnvaerM
- 20Ieltsin Camoes
- 19A. L. ElvebuM
- 16B. MyrvoldD
Form going into Aalesund vs Tromso
Aalesund
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Viking26 July 2026
Tromso
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Hradec Králové30 July 2026
- L0-1Hradec Králové23 July 2026
- W4-1away to Ham-Kam18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Aalesund | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 24 |
| 5 | Tromso | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Tromso
- 25 May 2026Tromso 1–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 8 March 2025Aalesund 1–0 TromsoFriendlies Clubs
- 8 October 2023Tromso 1–2 AalesundEliteserien
- 11 June 2023Aalesund 2–3 TromsoEliteserien
- 13 November 2022Tromso 2–2 AalesundEliteserien
Leading scorers: Aalesund and Tromso
Aalesund
GoalsAssists
- M. Christensen104
Tromso
GoalsAssists
- H. Larsen104
- J. Hjertø-Dahl72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tromso won 6–2 at Aalesund. The model had leaned towards a win for Aalesund at 40% and given a win for Tromso 37%. The goals: D. Edvardsson 9' for Tromso, I. Vadebu (own goal) 42' for Aalesund, A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd 48' for Tromso, A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd 54' for Tromso, E. Osenbroch 59' for Aalesund, A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd 69' for Tromso, H. Larsen 81' for Tromso, U. Syversen (own goal) 90' for Tromso. On expected goals it finished 2.46–1.82.