2 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Aalesund vs Tromso Eliteserien prediction & result

Color Line Stadion
Full time2 – 6

Final score: Aalesund 2-6 Tromso.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Aalesund, 23% draw, 37% Tromso — fair odds of 2.50, 4.35 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Aalesund at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aalesund0%Draw1%Tromso99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
M. Tonnessen
9'
⚽D. Edvardssonassist: T. Nyhammer
⚽I. Vadebu (OG)
42'
•H. Melland
44'
🔁S. Haramout: U. Syversen
46'
48'
⚽A. Thongla-Iad Warnerydassist: L. O. Larsen
54'
⚽A. Thongla-Iad Warnerydassist: I. Dahlqvist
⚽E. Osenbrochassist: H. Hammer
59'
🔁M. Andresenout: K. Nesso
60'
🔁H. Hammerout: E. Myrlid
60'
69'
⚽A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd
72'
🔁T. Nyhammerout: Ieltsin Camoes
🔁O. Gudmundssonout: M. Kristensen
77'
🔁K. Lonebuout: I. Djantou
77'
81'
⚽H. Larsenassist: D. Edvardsson
90'
🔁L. O. Larsenout: J. Grundt
90+3'
🔁A. Thongla-Iad Warnerydout: S. Innvaer
90+3'
🔁H. Larsenout: A. L. Elvebu
90'
⚽U. Syversen (OG)

Match stats — Aalesund vs Tromso

53%Possession47%
22Shots12
3On target6
9Corners4
2.46xG1.82

Goals against chances

Aalesund2 from 2.46 xGabout what the chances were worth
Tromso6 from 1.82 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aalesund
  • 1L. PodlechG
  • 2M. AndresenD
  • 4S. HaramD
  • 22E. EngqvistD
  • 3O. GudmundssonD
  • 14U. CharlesD
  • 6H. Hammer
  • 18E. HagenM
  • 8H. MellandM
  • 39K. LonebuF
  • 15E. OsenbrochF
Substitutes
  • 26T. LarsenG
  • 10M. Kristensen
  • 45P. AuklandD
  • 11D. JohannssonM
  • 25U. Syversen
  • 20I. DjantouF
  • 7K. NessoM
  • 16J. Orsahl
  • 17E. MyrlidF
Coach: Kjetil-Andre Rekdal
Tromso
  • 1J. HaugaardG
  • 17I. DahlqvistD
  • 30I. VadebuD
  • 4V. SkjaervikD
  • 3M. TonnessenD
  • 29A. Thongla-Iad WarnerydD
  • 5D. EdvardssonM
  • 11R. JenssenM
  • 7L. O. LarsenM
  • 22H. LarsenF
  • 10T. NyhammerF
Substitutes
  • 12O. LauvliG
  • 25C. OyvannD
  • 9D. BrautF
  • 27M. MikkelsenM
  • 8J. GrundtM
  • 37S. InnvaerM
  • 20Ieltsin Camoes
  • 19A. L. ElvebuM
  • 16B. MyrvoldD
Coach: Jorgen Vik

Form going into Aalesund vs Tromso

Aalesund

  • D1-1Viking26 July 2026

Tromso

  • L1-3away to Hradec Králové30 July 2026
  • L0-1Hradec Králové23 July 2026
  • W4-1away to Ham-Kam18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Aalesund203983145-1418
4Tromso2010553727+1035

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Tromso

  • 2 August 2026Aalesund 2–6 TromsoEliteserien
  • 25 May 2026Tromso 1–1 AalesundEliteserien
  • 8 March 2025Aalesund 1–0 TromsoFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 October 2023Tromso 1–2 AalesundEliteserien
  • 11 June 2023Aalesund 2–3 TromsoEliteserien
  • 13 November 2022Tromso 2–2 AalesundEliteserien

Leading scorers: Aalesund and Tromso

Aalesund

  • M. Christensen7 goals2 assists

Tromso

  • H. Larsen9 goals3 assists
  • J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.