FF Jaro
vs
VPS
Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: FF Jaro 1-3 VPS.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% FF Jaro, 26% draw, 36% VPS — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FF Jaro 1.43, VPS 1.38.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FF Jaro
- L0-2away to Lahti1 August 2026
- W2-1SJK24 July 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku19 July 2026
- W2-1Ilves4 July 2026
VPS
- L0-1Inter Turku2 August 2026
- L1-3away to KuPS25 July 2026
- L1-2away to HJK Helsinki18 July 2026
- W1-0SJK10 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FF Jaro | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 15 |
| 3 | VPS | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full tables
Leading scorers
FF Jaro
- H. Sjögrell5 goals1 assists
VPS
- L. Smyth5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FF Jaro the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FF Jaro against 1.38 for VPS. FF Jaro's attack/defence rating is 0.39/2.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/1.94 for VPS.