Versailles
vs
Aubagne
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Versailles 2–0 Aubagne
The model makes it 59% Versailles, 23% draw, 18% Aubagne — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Versailles 2.09, Aubagne 0.91.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Versailles: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Versailles are 3rd on 19 points from 10 games; Aubagne are 16th on 7 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Versailles are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Thionville Lusitanos.
- Aubagne have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Le Puy Foot.
- Last 4 meetings: Versailles 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Versailles 3–0 Aubagne.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Versailles vs Aubagne
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Versailles at 59% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Versailles vs Aubagne
Versailles
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos17 October 2026
- W1-0Valenciennes3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Villefranche26 September 2026
- D0-0Quevilly19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Orleans12 September 2026
Aubagne
- L0-1Le Puy Foot17 October 2026
- L1-3away to La Roche VF3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fleury 9126 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rouen19 September 2026
- L1-2Concarneau12 September 2026
What these results say
- Versailles went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Versailles won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Versailles scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aubagne conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aubagne failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Versailles | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Versailles
Chance to finish in the top four · 47% today
Aubagne
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 58% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Versailles vs Aubagne
- 27 February 2026Versailles 3–0 AubagneLigue 3
- 19 September 2025Aubagne 1–1 VersaillesLigue 3
- 8 February 2025Versailles 2–0 AubagneLigue 3
- 6 September 2024Aubagne 3–3 VersaillesLigue 3
The two sides
Versailles carry a model rating of 6.25 against 5.99 for Aubagne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.09 goals for Versailles and 0.91 for Aubagne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Versailles rate 0.58 in attack and 1.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aubagne rate 0.39 and 2.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Versailles a 13.3% chance of the title and Aubagne 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Versailles the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Versailles against 0.91 for Aubagne. Versailles's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/2.21 for Aubagne.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Versailles at home · Aubagne away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Versailles 10, Aubagne 10.
Versailles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Aubagne have let in 0 there.
Aubagne score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Versailles have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Versailles
- at Caen7 Nov · Ligue 3win 30%
- vs Bourg-en-bresse 0121 Nov · Ligue 3win 65%
- at Gobelins5 Dec · Ligue 3win 39%
- vs Concarneau12 Dec · Ligue 3win 50%
- at Rouen16 Jan · Ligue 3win 25%
Aubagne
- vs Amiens7 Nov · Ligue 3win 30%
- at Cannes21 Nov · Ligue 3win 15%
- vs Orleans5 Dec · Ligue 3win 37%
- at Quevilly12 Dec · Ligue 3win 23%
- vs Villefranche16 Jan · Ligue 3win 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.