Orleans
vs
Villefranche
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Orleans 2–1 Villefranche
The model makes it 56% Orleans, 23% draw, 21% Villefranche — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Orleans 2.20, Villefranche 1.16.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Orleans: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Orleans are 15th on 9 points from 10 games; Villefranche are 17th on 7 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Orleans have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Quevilly.
- Villefranche have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cannes.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 March 2026, ended Orleans 0–0 Villefranche.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Orleans vs Villefranche
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orleans at 56% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Orleans vs Villefranche
Orleans
- L2-3away to Quevilly17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bastia1 October 2026
- D0-0Cannes26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Amiens19 September 2026
- L0-4Versailles12 September 2026
Villefranche
- W2-1Cannes17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Amiens3 October 2026
- L1-2Versailles26 September 2026
- L1-4away to Le Puy Foot19 September 2026
- D0-0La Roche VF12 September 2026
What these results say
- Orleans did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orleans conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Villefranche failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Villefranche conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Villefranche had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Orleans | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 |
| 17 | Villefranche | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Orleans
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
Villefranche
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 65% today
From our Ligue 3 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Orleans vs Villefranche
- 27 March 2026Orleans 0–0 VillefrancheLigue 3
- 21 October 2025Villefranche 1–2 OrleansLigue 3
- 21 February 2025Villefranche 2–0 OrleansLigue 3
- 20 September 2024Orleans 1–1 VillefrancheLigue 3
- 8 March 2024Orleans 2–0 VillefrancheLigue 3
- 29 September 2023Villefranche 3–0 OrleansLigue 3
The two sides
Orleans carry a model rating of 6.11 against 5.95 for Villefranche. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Orleans and 1.16 for Villefranche. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orleans rate 0.48 in attack and 2.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Villefranche rate 0.46 and 2.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Orleans a 0.2% chance of the title and Villefranche 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orleans the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Orleans against 1.16 for Villefranche. Orleans's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.82 for Villefranche.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Orleans at home · Villefranche away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Orleans 10, Villefranche 10.
Orleans score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Villefranche have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Orleans
- at Valenciennes5 Nov · Ligue 3win 31%
- vs Thionville Lusitanos21 Nov · Ligue 3win 46%
- at Aubagne5 Dec · Ligue 3win 35%
- vs Caen10 Dec · Ligue 3win 39%
- at Bourg-en-bresse 0116 Jan · Ligue 3win 41%
Villefranche
- vs Quevilly7 Nov · Ligue 3win 36%
- at Bastia21 Nov · Ligue 3win 14%
- at Valenciennes5 Dec · Ligue 3win 23%
- vs Thionville Lusitanos12 Dec · Ligue 3win 37%
- at Aubagne16 Jan · Ligue 3win 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.