Utrecht
vs
Willem II
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Utrecht 2–1 Willem II
The model makes it 55% Utrecht, 24% draw, 21% Willem II — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Utrecht 2.54, Willem II 1.12.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Utrecht vs Willem II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Utrecht at 55% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Utrecht vs Willem II
Utrecht
- L0-5away to Feyenoord20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Excelsior13 September 2026
- D3-3GO Ahead Eagles8 September 2026
- L1-6PSV Eindhoven30 August 2026
- D3-3away to Sparta Rotterdam22 August 2026
Willem II
- L0-1Fortuna Sittard19 September 2026
- L1-5away to Ajax15 September 2026
- D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
- L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen30 August 2026
What these results say
- Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Utrecht had three goals or more.
- Utrecht failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Willem II did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Willem II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Utrecht vs Willem II
- 9 March 2025Willem II 2–3 UtrechtEredivisie
- 21 September 2024Utrecht 3–2 Willem IIEredivisie
- 15 May 2022Willem II 3–0 UtrechtEredivisie
- 31 October 2021Utrecht 5–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 1 May 2021Utrecht 3–2 Willem IIEredivisie
- 19 February 2021Willem II 0–6 UtrechtEredivisie
Leading scorers: Utrecht and Willem II
Utrecht
- Artem Stepanov5 goals
Willem II
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Utrecht carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.33 for Willem II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.54 goals for Utrecht and 1.12 for Willem II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Utrecht rate 0.85 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Willem II rate 0.58 and 1.63.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Utrecht the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Utrecht against 1.12 for Willem II. Utrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.63 for Willem II.