Utrecht vs Willem II Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Utrecht 3-1 Willem II.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Utrecht, 21% draw, 17% Willem II — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Utrecht at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Utrecht vs Willem II
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1V. BarkasG
- 2S. HoremansD
- 3M. DiddenD
- 5N. PanagiotouD
- 23N. VesterlundM
- 8J. van OvereemM
- 38O. AgougilM
- 92A. ZagréM
- 80M. BroholmF
- 20D. de WitF
- 10Y. CathlineF
- 11Ángel AlarcónF
- 39N. AmrabatF
- 15A. BlakeF
- 33K. GadellaaG
- 32P. KloosterboerD
- 18J. MedićD
- 6G. OfferhausD
- 21N. Ogidi NwankwoD
- 22S. PadtG
- 26M. DelangheG
- 5H. ter AvestD
- 3F. StamD
- 23M. DekkerD
- 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
- 6C. TwigtM
- 52T. VilhenaM
- 7J. SloryM
- 19Uriel van AalstM
- 32V. van CrooijM
- 9D. HaenF
- 15A. Et-TaïbiD
- 50E. GürbüzF
- 83M. LemmensD
- 14Jens MathijsenD
- 17O. MartinF
- 10J. SchuurmanM
- 28T. VerheydtF
- 18Anass ZarroukM
- 31K. de LeeuwG
Form going into Utrecht vs Willem II
Utrecht
All competitions we cover
- L0-5away to Feyenoord20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Excelsior13 September 2026
- D3-3GO Ahead Eagles8 September 2026
- L1-6PSV Eindhoven30 August 2026
- D3-3away to Sparta Rotterdam22 August 2026
Willem II
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Fortuna Sittard19 September 2026
- L1-5away to Ajax15 September 2026
- D1-1away to AZ Alkmaar11 September 2026
- L0-3Excelsior5 September 2026
- D2-2Heerenveen30 August 2026
What these results say
- Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Utrecht had three goals or more.
- Utrecht failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Willem II did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Willem II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 12 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Utrecht vs Willem II
- 9 March 2025Willem II 2–3 UtrechtEredivisie
- 21 September 2024Utrecht 3–2 Willem IIEredivisie
- 15 May 2022Willem II 3–0 UtrechtEredivisie
- 31 October 2021Utrecht 5–1 Willem IIEredivisie
- 1 May 2021Utrecht 3–2 Willem IIEredivisie
The result against the call
Utrecht beat Willem II 3–1. The model had made a win for Utrecht its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Yoann Cathline 53' for Utrecht, Jaden Slory 60' for Willem II, Yoann Cathline 75' for Utrecht, Ángel Alarcón 90+2' for Utrecht. On expected goals it finished 1.38–0.66.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Utrecht a 9.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.3% after a win, 11.5% after a draw, 13.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.3%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.
For Willem II the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 78.6% going in: 71.3% after a win, 77.1% after a draw, 80.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.9%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Utrecht v Willem II has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 55% / 24% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 62% / 21% / 17%: the biggest move is Utrecht's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Utrecht win62%▲ +7
- Draw21%▼ −3
- Willem II win17%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.