Excelsior
vs
Groningen
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Excelsior 2–1 Groningen
The model makes it 41% Excelsior, 28% draw, 31% Groningen — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Excelsior 1.67, Groningen 1.27.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Excelsior vs Groningen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Excelsior at 41% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Excelsior vs Groningen
Excelsior
- D2-2away to Ajax19 September 2026
- L1-2Utrecht13 September 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen8 September 2026
- W3-0away to Willem II5 September 2026
- W2-1Sparta Rotterdam29 August 2026
Groningen
- W3-0PEC Zwolle18 September 2026
- D1-1away to GO Ahead Eagles12 September 2026
- D2-2Twente6 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
- L1-5away to PSV Eindhoven23 August 2026
What these results say
- Excelsior scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Excelsior had three goals or more.
- Excelsior conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Groningen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Groningen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Groningen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Groningen
- 2 May 2026Groningen 2–3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 5 December 2025Excelsior 0–2 GroningenEredivisie
- 16 January 2024Excelsior 0–2 GroningenKNVB Beker
- 25 February 2023Groningen 3–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 8 January 2023Excelsior 1–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 15 December 2021Excelsior 2–4 GroningenKNVB Beker
Leading scorers: Excelsior and Groningen
Excelsior
- A. Sliti3 goals1 assists
Groningen
- T. van Bergen4 goals2 assists
- B. Willumsson4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Excelsior carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.72 for Groningen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Excelsior and 1.27 for Groningen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Excelsior rate 0.84 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Groningen rate 0.83 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Excelsior a 0.5% chance of the title and Groningen 0.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Excelsior the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Excelsior against 1.27 for Groningen. Excelsior's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.08 for Groningen.