Excelsior vs Groningen Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Excelsior 1-5 Groningen.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Excelsior, 26% draw, 30% Groningen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Excelsior at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Excelsior vs Groningen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. van GasselG
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
- 4C. WidellD
- 14J. PlugD
- 15S. JanssenD
- 8I. YegoianM
- 3R. MeissenM
- 20L. HartjesM
- 7A. SlitiF
- 19D. GardenF
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 22O. TurayD
- 6D. van VianenM
- 28N. GroenF
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 1E. VaessenG
- 14J. SchreudersD
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 5M. RenteD
- 33H. HateboerD
- 8T. de JongeM
- 24P. ClementM
- 17D. van der WerffM
- 26T. van BergenM
- 11J. OndrejkaM
- 9B. WillumssonF
- 4M. CsingerD
- 20Nils EggensF
- 53J. HallM
- 18T. LandM
- 34R. MetuF
- 42J. MosselaarD
- 16A. NordinM
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 19O. ZawadaF
Form going into Excelsior vs Groningen
Excelsior
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Ajax19 September 2026
- L1-2Utrecht13 September 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen8 September 2026
- W3-0away to Willem II5 September 2026
- W2-1Sparta Rotterdam29 August 2026
Groningen
All competitions we cover
- W3-0PEC Zwolle18 September 2026
- D1-1away to GO Ahead Eagles12 September 2026
- D2-2Twente6 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
- L1-5away to PSV Eindhoven23 August 2026
What these results say
- Excelsior scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Excelsior had three goals or more.
- Excelsior conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Groningen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Groningen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Groningen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Groningen
- 2 May 2026Groningen 2–3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 5 December 2025Excelsior 0–2 GroningenEredivisie
- 16 January 2024Excelsior 0–2 GroningenKNVB Beker
- 25 February 2023Groningen 3–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 8 January 2023Excelsior 1–0 GroningenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Excelsior and Groningen
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- B. Willumsson91
- T. van Bergen83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Groningen won 5–1 at Excelsior. The model had leaned towards a win for Excelsior at 44% and given a win for Groningen 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Marco Rente 7' for Groningen, Irakli Yegoian (penalty) 36' for Excelsior, Stijn van Gassel (own goal) 38' for Groningen, Thom Van Bergen (penalty) 64' for Groningen, Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 67' for Groningen, Marco Rente 90+5' for Groningen. On expected goals it finished 1.81–2.77.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Excelsior a 7.8% chance to finish in the top four: 9.4% after a win, 7.2% after a draw, 4.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.5%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.
For Groningen the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.4% going in: 11.2% after a win, 7.4% after a draw, 5.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.2%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Excelsior v Groningen has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 44% / 26% / 30%: the biggest move is Excelsior's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Excelsior win44%▲ +3
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Groningen win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.