PEC Zwolle
vs
Cambuur
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: PEC Zwolle 2–1 Cambuur
The model makes it 39% PEC Zwolle, 26% draw, 35% Cambuur — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.89, Cambuur 1.75.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PEC Zwolle at 39% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
PEC Zwolle
- L0-3away to Groningen18 September 2026
- L0-7Feyenoord13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sparta Rotterdam4 September 2026
- L1-3NEC Nijmegen29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Heerenveen22 August 2026
Cambuur
- D1-1away to ADO Den Haag19 September 2026
- W3-0NEC Nijmegen12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar6 September 2026
- L1-4Twente30 August 2026
- L2-5Feyenoord23 August 2026
What these results say
- PEC Zwolle failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PEC Zwolle had three goals or more.
- Cambuur scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cambuur failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cambuur conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
- 22 July 2022PEC Zwolle 3–1 CambuurFriendlies Clubs
- 12 February 2022Cambuur 3–4 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 6 November 2021PEC Zwolle 1–2 CambuurEredivisie
- 24 July 2021PEC Zwolle 2–1 CambuurFriendlies Clubs
- 1 August 2020Cambuur 2–0 PEC ZwolleFriendlies Clubs
- 27 February 2016Cambuur 1–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
Leading scorers: PEC Zwolle and Cambuur
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Cambuur
- R. El Arguioui4 goals
- I. Hamache3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
PEC Zwolle carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.48 for Cambuur. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.75 for Cambuur. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PEC Zwolle rate 0.63 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cambuur rate 0.77 and 1.63.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cambuur, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PEC Zwolle the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for PEC Zwolle against 1.75 for Cambuur. PEC Zwolle's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.63 for Cambuur.