PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PEC Zwolle 0-1 Cambuur.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% PEC Zwolle, 24% draw, 36% Cambuur — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
PEC Zwolle at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. SchendelaarG
- 3O. AertssenD
- 28S. GravesD
- 24N. ViergeverD
- 2S. FloranusD
- 30R. ThomasM
- 8T. SommerM
- 11D. MbayoM
- 25T. OostingM
- 22I. CissokoM
- 10K. KostonsF
- 34N. FichtingerM
- 6Jan BürgerD
- 9E. SørensenF
- 26Jadiel Pereira da GamaM
- 20G. ReizigerM
- 18O. VelanasM
- 4T. VelthuisD
- 41D. VerduinG
- 16T. de GraaffG
- 1T. JansenG
- 2D. BouahD
- 4I. BaoufD
- 14B. van DuijlD
- 28M. CostarelliD
- 17Ethan ApkakouM
- 8N. SourenM
- 15F. KvamM
- 10R. El ArguiouiM
- 11I. HamacheM
- 33M. MaertensF
- 6J. AmofaD
- 3J. BerkhoutD
- 13N. BinderF
- 7S. BouhoudaneF
- 29Iwan HenstraF
- 23L. JettenD
- 24M. KalisvaartG
- 27W. KooistraF
- 16R. MuldersD
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
PEC Zwolle
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Groningen18 September 2026
- L0-7Feyenoord13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sparta Rotterdam4 September 2026
- L1-3NEC Nijmegen29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Heerenveen22 August 2026
Cambuur
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to ADO Den Haag19 September 2026
- W3-0NEC Nijmegen12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar6 September 2026
- L1-4Twente30 August 2026
- L2-5Feyenoord23 August 2026
What these results say
- PEC Zwolle failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PEC Zwolle had three goals or more.
- Cambuur scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cambuur failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cambuur conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
- 22 July 2022PEC Zwolle 3–1 CambuurFriendlies Clubs
- 12 February 2022Cambuur 3–4 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 6 November 2021PEC Zwolle 1–2 CambuurEredivisie
- 24 July 2021PEC Zwolle 2–1 CambuurFriendlies Clubs
- 1 August 2020Cambuur 2–0 PEC ZwolleFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: PEC Zwolle and Cambuur
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Cambuur
GoalsAssists
- R. El Arguioui62
- I. Hamache53
- N. Binder52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cambuur won 1–0 at PEC Zwolle. The model had leaned towards a win for PEC Zwolle at 40% and given a win for Cambuur 36%. The goal: Nicolas Binder 83' for Cambuur. On expected goals it finished 1.06–0.88.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave PEC Zwolle a 58.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 52.0% after a win, 60.5% after a draw, 66.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.3%, 7.4 points higher than before the match.
For Cambuur the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 37.6% going in: 31.0% after a win, 37.2% after a draw, 43.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.0%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on PEC Zwolle v Cambuur has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 39% / 26% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 24% / 36%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- PEC Zwolle win40%▲ +1
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Cambuur win36%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.