Fortuna Sittard vs Twente Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Sittard 1-1 Twente.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Fortuna Sittard, 25% draw, 49% Twente — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Twente at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Sittard vs Twente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31M. BranderhorstG
- 12Ivo PintoD
- 3Rodrigo GuthD
- 6S. van OtteleD
- 28Justin Quincy HubnerD
- 23P. BrittijnM
- 20É. MichutM
- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t ZandM
- 52M. IhattarenF
- 25L. ZeefuikF
- 9A. DescotteF
- 2S. WylinD
- 15N. de GrootD
- 38Moussa GbemouM
- 33K. ReitmaierG
- 1L. KoopmansG
- 7K. PetersonF
- 10O. RomenyF
- 14S. SimonsM
- 24D. SinkgravenD
- 16J. DrommelG
- 28B. van RooijD
- 3R. PröpperD
- 4R. NijstadD
- 29A. AdelgaardD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 8D. WeidmannM
- 11D. RotsM
- 10Y. TahaM
- 7M. PjacaM
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
- 20T. van den BeltM
- 37N. ÜnüvarF
- 2M. RosiakD
- 22R. PasveerG
- 24K. KurowskiD
- 14K. HlynssonM
- 31Yannick GerritsenG
- 18Jordy BawuahM
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs Twente
Fortuna Sittard
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Willem II19 September 2026
- L1-5Ajax12 September 2026
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen28 August 2026
- L0-2AZ Alkmaar22 August 2026
Twente
All competitions we cover
- W3-2PSV Eindhoven20 September 2026
- W2-0ADO Den Haag12 September 2026
- W1-0Telstar9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Groningen6 September 2026
- W4-1away to Cambuur30 August 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Sittard scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Twente went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Twente scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Twente won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs Twente
- 21 March 2026Fortuna Sittard 1–2 TwenteEredivisie
- 26 September 2025Twente 3–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 5 April 2025Twente 1–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 23 November 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–2 TwenteEredivisie
- 6 April 2024Twente 2–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and Twente
Fortuna Sittard
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Twente
GoalsAssists
- W. Weghorst92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fortuna Sittard and Twente drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Twente at 49% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Anthony Descotte 9' for Fortuna Sittard, Robin Propper 34' for Twente. On expected goals it finished 0.89–1.18.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fortuna Sittard a 3.3% chance to finish in the top four: 5.0% after a win, 3.1% after a draw, 2.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 3.1%.
For Twente the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 58.7% going in: 63.6% after a win, 54.4% after a draw, 52.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 54.4%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fortuna Sittard v Twente has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 28% / 27% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 26% / 25% / 49%: the biggest move is Twente's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Fortuna Sittard win26%▼ −2
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Twente win49%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.