Fortuna Sittard
vs
Twente
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Fortuna Sittard 1–2 Twente
The model makes it 28% Fortuna Sittard, 27% draw, 45% Twente — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Fortuna Sittard 1.20, Twente 1.87.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fortuna Sittard vs Twente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Twente at 45% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs Twente
Fortuna Sittard
- W1-0away to Willem II19 September 2026
- L1-5Ajax12 September 2026
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen28 August 2026
- L0-2AZ Alkmaar22 August 2026
Twente
- W3-2PSV Eindhoven20 September 2026
- W2-0ADO Den Haag12 September 2026
- W1-0Telstar9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Groningen6 September 2026
- W4-1away to Cambuur30 August 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Sittard scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Twente went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Twente scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Twente won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs Twente
- 21 March 2026Fortuna Sittard 1–2 TwenteEredivisie
- 26 September 2025Twente 3–2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 5 April 2025Twente 1–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 23 November 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–2 TwenteEredivisie
- 6 April 2024Twente 2–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 8 October 2023Fortuna Sittard 0–3 TwenteEredivisie
Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and Twente
Fortuna Sittard
- M. Ihattaren3 goals2 assists
Twente
- W. Weghorst4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fortuna Sittard carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.94 for Twente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.87 for Twente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortuna Sittard rate 0.79 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Twente rate 0.98 and 0.83.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortuna Sittard a 0.7% chance of the title and Twente 3.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Twente the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.2 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard against 1.87 for Twente. Fortuna Sittard's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/0.83 for Twente.