Podbrezová
vs
Spartak Trnava
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Podbrezová 1–2 Spartak Trnava
The model makes it 32% Podbrezová, 29% draw, 39% Spartak Trnava — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Podbrezová 1.30, Spartak Trnava 1.55.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Podbrezová are 5th on 14 points from 9 games; Spartak Trnava are 3rd on 18 points from 9 games — Super Liga.
- Podbrezová have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Skalica.
- Spartak Trnava are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Dunajska Streda.
- Last 6 meetings: Spartak Trnava 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Podbrezová 0–3 Spartak Trnava.
All Slovak Super Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Trnava at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava
Podbrezová
- W1-0away to Skalica20 September 2026
- D1-1Komárno13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Žilina5 September 2026
- D2-2FK Košice29 August 2026
- L0-5away to Dunajska Streda22 August 2026
Spartak Trnava
- D2-2away to Dunajska Streda20 September 2026
- W5-2FK Košice12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ružomberok6 September 2026
- L1-3Žilina30 August 2026
- W4-0away to AS Trencin23 August 2026
What these results say
- Podbrezová failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Podbrezová scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Podbrezová conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Trnava scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Trnava conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Spartak Trnava had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Podbrezová | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 3 | Spartak Trnava | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Podbrezová vs Spartak Trnava
- 3 May 2026Podbrezová 0–3 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
- 5 April 2026Spartak Trnava 4–1 PodbrezováSuper Liga
- 3 March 2026Podbrezová 4–1 Spartak TrnavaCup
- 21 February 2026Spartak Trnava 0–5 PodbrezováSuper Liga
- 3 December 2025Podbrezová 1–3 Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
- 17 May 2025Spartak Trnava 2–1 PodbrezováSuper Liga
The two sides
Podbrezová carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.58 for Spartak Trnava. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Podbrezová and 1.55 for Spartak Trnava. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Podbrezová rate 0.62 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Trnava rate 0.75 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Podbrezová a 0.2% chance of the title and Spartak Trnava 7.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Trnava the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Podbrezová against 1.55 for Spartak Trnava. Podbrezová's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.29 for Spartak Trnava.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Podbrezová at home · Spartak Trnava away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Podbrezová 9, Spartak Trnava 9.
Podbrezová score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Spartak Trnava have let in 0 there.
Spartak Trnava score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Podbrezová have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Podbrezová
- at Dukla Banská Bystrica18 Oct · Super Ligawin 39%
- at Zemplín Michalovce24 Oct · Super Ligawin 31%
- vs Slovan Bratislava31 Oct · Super Ligawin 29%
- vs Ružomberok8 Nov · Super Ligawin 51%
- at AS Trencin21 Nov · Super Ligawin 38%
Spartak Trnava
- vs Slovan Bratislava17 Oct · Super Ligawin 38%
- at Skalica24 Oct · Super Ligawin 45%
- vs Komárno31 Oct · Super Ligawin 55%
- at Dukla Banská Bystrica7 Nov · Super Ligawin 49%
- at Zemplín Michalovce21 Nov · Super Ligawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.